2002 winners will be Democrats who talk a new, centrist line

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based historian and writer

"A week is a long time in politics," said Lord Somebody. How about a century in Hawai‘i politics? Here’s what two senior pollsters say has happened.

Dan Tuttle, the emeritus political scientist who pioneered political polling here a half-century ago, has a long view: "Republicans reigned for some 50 years after annexation, and those decades were followed by almost half a century of Democratic rule. The pendulum appears to be swinging back."

Asked to predict a Republican Lingle vs. Democrat Harris gubernatorial race, Dan feigns surprise and jokes, "Is Harris a Democrat?"

Recently retired as executive director of the Hawai‘i Education Association, Dan leisurely examines the contents of a bowl of Portuguese bean soup. He said to go light on the meat and checks to see if the kitchen followed orders. We are seated at his favorite Hau Tree Lanai table at the Kaimana Beach Hotel. It’s Friday and Arthur Lyman is entertaining.

Over the music, Dan says, "Linda Lingle has revitalized the GOP."

Citing the increased number of Republican legislators, Dan takes special pride in one, House minority leader Galen Fox.

"He loves politics. I knew his dad."

A few days earlier, at Murphy’s pub, Don Clegg, a psychologist and the dean of today’s political pollsters, noted a gradual Democratic shift toward the center. "In the next election," he says, "Democratic candidates who are seen as non-traditional will attract the voters." He cautions, "The Democratic Party needs a new paradigm. And if it doesn’t develop one, the Republicans will become more significant. In time, the Democrats will lose it."

Both pollsters mention the impact of population changes: young voters no longer embrace old Democratic values; the labor movement is losing momentum; few true believers remain.

Rank-and-file labor no longer votes as a block. Clegg points to Harris’ "easy win," by a 16 percent margin, over Mufi Hannemann in the last mayor’s race. Harris had the support of the private unions, and Mufi the support of the public-worker unions. Despite the endorsements, public workers voted for Harris, and unionized carpenters and painters voted for Hannemann. The days of solidarity are no more.

The unions’ strength today is at the Capitol, where they have enormous power over legislators, the men observe. "Power far in excess of the proportion of election-day votes that labor delivers," says Clegg.

"More and more citizens are saying, ‘leave me alone,’" observes Clegg. "People don’t want to be protected from themselves by government. The proper role of government is to protect folks from forces outside themselves. Traditional Democrats have not yet recognized that." He notes that U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie has become more centrist, while U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink has stayed solidly put at the far left of center.

Clegg emphasizes that above all else an elected official had better tend to voters’ needs. If a representative who works hard for the district votes contrary on a particular issue, voters will be forgiving at the polls. "It is attention to constituents that’s most important, not the voting record," Clegg advises his clients.

Tuttle finishes off the vegetables in the soup, leaving scraps of meat. Once a Sunday columnist for the Advertiser, he shakes his head as he recalls the relentless "campaign" both dailies waged against the Bishop Estate trustees. He says, "There has been nothing in the world like it since the Nazi controlled press went after the Jews."

The resulting resignations of trustees Henry Peters, a former speaker of the House, and Richard Wong, once president of the Senate, weakened the Democratic power base. But did the fall of those two trustees create a power vacuum in this still strongly Democratic state? Who fills the void? New faces or old?

At the national level, Tuttle predicts Sen. Dan Inouye will run again in 2004. And will win. But that Sen. Dan Akaka, who certainly would be re-elected if he ran, may not seek another term in 2006. Akaka probably wants to enjoy his last years by living full-time in Hawai‘i. If that’s so, former Gov. John Waihee, and maybe even outgoing Gov. Ben Cayetano, may want to join that exclusive Club of One Hundred.

"Mink has her seat for life," Tuttle declares. "You can have Abercrombie," he offers.

Clegg says, "No one has a lifetime seat."

At the state level, some powerful old-time Democrats have encouraged D.G. "Andy" Anderson, the former "Mr. Republican," to run as a Democrat for governor. But even with Anderson crowding the field, Tuttle thinks Harris has the edge for the nomination.

A recent poll indicates he may be right. If the general election were held today, Harris beats Mazie Hirono by 18 points. In the general election, Harris beats Lingle in a squeaker.

The same poll indicates that in the general, Hirono loses to Lingle by 9 points.

But Hirono has not, as yet, defined her candidacy for governor. And the effect of the possible entrance of Anderson has not been measured. Still, the elections are months away.

After Harris resigns to run for governor, there will be a winner-take-all non-partisan race for mayor. After saying Mufi Hannemann and Duke Bainum are credible candidates, Clegg makes a surprising statement. He contends that former mayor Frank Fasi, if he runs, stands "a reasonable chance" of being returned to Honolulu Hale. Tuttle doesn’t buy that, but chuckles at the thought.

Both Tuttle and Clegg worked on Fasi campaigns in past years. Both of them still have fond memories of the octogenarian, Clegg fewer than Tuttle.

As of this Sunday, about the only fresh face in view is Vicky Cayetano. "She would be tough to beat for whatever office she seeks," says Clegg. She has flirted with a race for mayor. But who knows, she might take on Republican state Sen. Sam Slom, whose district she will move into after leaving Washington Place. If she won, Tuttle would be unhappy. He thinks Slom is one of the best legislators we have.

If the two senior pollsters are right, Republicans will continue to make steady gains in the Legislature. And with our Democratic delegation to Washington aging rapidly, perhaps a Republican will make it to those hallowed halls sometime soon. Hawai‘i is the only state that does not have a Republican in either the U.S. Congress or as governor.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the two guys eyeing the race appear to be the most non-traditional Democrats. You'll remember that Jeremy Harris once felt he had to convince folks that he really was a Democrat, by taking out newspaper ads. And you can’t find a more non-traditional Democrat than Andy "Mr. Republican" Anderson.

Mazie Hirono has traditional Democratic allies and supports their values, as does Patsy Mink. They may suffer the consequences, if 2002 is, indeed, The Year of The Non-Traditional Democrat.

Traditional or non-traditional, all of the major candidates have familiar faces. So, the pendulum may swing, but the faces don’t change.

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