Incident may affect arms sales to Taiwan
Associated Press
TAIPEI, Taiwan — The mid-air collision between U.S. and Chinese military planes came at a tense time for Taiwan — just weeks before Washington is to decide what weapons to sell this island.
The incident over the South China Sea could complicate the annual arms negotiations, which Beijing has been aggressively lobbying against, analysts said today.
President Bush is nearing a decision on whether to allow Taiwan to buy four destroyers equipped with the Navy's most advanced anti-missile radar system.
Those close to the process expect he will give the self-governing island most of what it wants, but not all.
Bush will decide in the next few weeks what kind of arms package to approve for Taiwan, administration officials said. It is a major presidential decision that comes each April.
The closely watched action will be the strongest signal yet of Bush's policy for dealing with China, which adamantly opposes the sale.
China considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province, and Chinese leaders argue that selling weapons to the island delays their goal of unification.
"This is a very important, sensitive moment," said Andrew Yang, a defense expert at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a Taipei think tank.
The Taiwanese often worry that conflict between the United States and China ends with Washington making some concession to Beijing in order to improve relations. Yang doubted that the Chinese would be able to use the collision as some sort of bargaining chip with Washington when the two sides try and settle the matter.
In this case, Yang said, that means Washington is unlikely to strike items off Taiwan's weapons wish list, which includes submarines, surveillance planes and destroyers equipped with the most advanced U.S. radar system.
But the collision yesterday will feed China's argument that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan increase the possibility of war in the region.
"This incident is a symbol of the potential tension between the United States and China in the South China Sea," Yang said.
Taiwan's Ministry of Defense released a short statement that simply described the event: A U.S. Navy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet sent to intercept it over the South China Sea. The jet damaged the plane, forcing it to land on China's Hainan Island.
China blamed the U.S. aircraft for the collision. But the commander of U.S. Pacific military forces said the Chinese planes were at fault.
Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's top official for China policy, told lawmakers the government was still studying the situation and had yet to determine how it would affect Taiwan-U.S.-China relations.
"It will more or less have some impact," she said.
Philip Yang, a political science professor at the elite National Taiwan University, doubted that the incident would prompt Washington to sell Taiwan more weapons than it had planned.
He said that kind of decision would be too extreme and would greatly accelerate existing tensions.
The professor predicted China might immediately return the plane and its 24 crew members — a goodwill gesture Beijing would hope Washington would reward by scaling back future arms sales to Taiwan.
Philip Yang said that the incident could also benefit U.S.-China-Taiwan relations by forcing the United States and China to increase communication between their militaries and minimize the risk of dangerous misunderstandings.
"It could create a door for future China and U.S. military dialogue," he said.
Taiwan is seeking an arsenal of high-tech military hardware to counter a growing missile threat from the mainland, a threat documented last week by the Pentagon's top Pacific commander.
At the top of Taiwan's wish list are four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. The warships, priced at more than $1.2 billion apiece, are equipped with missiles and radar systems that can simultaneously track more than 200 targets.
Administration officials said over the weekend that Bush has yet to make a decision.
But officials close to the process, including Republicans in Congress involved in military issues, said they expect Bush to approve the sale to Taiwan of destroyers equipped with a sophisticated radar system — but that it be a scaled-down version of the Aegis system.
They also said they expected Bush to attach some strings to the sales, allowing his decision to be reversed if China removes some of the missiles it has been massing on its side of the Taiwan Strait.
Former President Clinton turned down Taiwan's request for the destroyers last year.
But Taiwan's leaders and the island's supporters in Congress have been heartened by recent comments by administration officials that appeared to spell a harder line toward China.
"Bush administration policy and majority sentiment in Congress are the same," said Rep. Christopher Cox, R-Calif., who is influential on China-Taiwan issues. "We want to give the People's Republic of China every incentive to stop their military buildup. That means there should be consequences if they fail to do so — as well as incentives."
Taiwan is also requesting Kidd-class destroyers, diesel submarines, and the Army's advanced Patriot anti-missile system known as PAC-3.
The United States has never sold Taiwan submarines and was not expected to this time, either.
