Senate budget proposal could extend the strike

The state Senate may have made a severe tactical mistake this week by writing a new state budget that "makes room" for up to $250 million worth of teacher and university faculty pay hikes.

Sure our teachers and faculty are worth that $250 million. They hold the future of a generation of students in their hands.

But the issue isn't how much we value our teachers; it is how much we can afford to pay them and how that pay will be structured within a collective bargaining contract.

In that sense, the Senate has jumped the gun. The teachers and university professors are now on strike, but at some point they will have to re-enter talks with the administration. Will the money "set aside" by the Senate now become the floor for further talks?

It is also somewhat unclear precisely what would have to give in order to make room for pay-hike money. Senate Ways and Means Committee Chairman Brian Taniguchi identified some of the areas where his committee felt trims were possible. He also said the committee decided to dip into special funds (money not part of the general fund) to generate some of the cash.

But does this genuinely add up to $250 million, or is there some wishful thinking involved? It is tough for an outsider to say, because the budget-writing process is somewhat opaque.

In a letter on the opposite page today, Sen. Les Ihara and Rep. Charles Djou complain that, even as lawmakers, they are having trouble getting the details of budget decisions. Those details are contained in worksheets that are closely held by key members of the money committees.

For instance, what are the long-term tax income assumptions that support the budget decisions? If they were built on the rosy tourism growth projections of only a few months ago, they may now be off target.

The Hawai'i Tourism Authority has just revised its growth targets for the year from a healthy 10 percent to virtually zero — no growth. That will have a major impact on the overall strength of the state's tax collections.

In other words, even if there might have been room in the state budget for $250 million in pay hikes, we may have just seen that room disappear.

This budget process may have been a sincere effort to help our deserving teachers and faculty. But it may backfire by extending, rather than resolving, a labor dispute that has brought our public education system to a standstill.