Posted on: Wednesday, August 1, 2001

Editorial
Japan vote didn't raise much hope

The powerful victory won this week by Japan's ruling party is widely interpreted as a mandate for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's promised painful reform of Japan's struggling economy.

Indeed it is. So with the nation ready to bite the bullet, what could possibly stand in the way of these reforms?

The answer is likely to be Koizumi's own party, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. A few short months ago, it appeared certain the LDP and the coalition it leads were in trouble with voters as the election neared for the upper house of Japan's Diet. The striking reversal of fortunes this week is entirely due to the unexpected popularity of Koizumi.

The fact is that few LPD members have any enthusiasm for the sorts of reforms Koizumi has outlined. It is a party of special interests whose oxen are those most likely to be gored by reform.

In fact, the LDP has cynically ridden the popularity of Koizumi to stay in power in the latest election, fully intending, if it can, to dump him in the upcoming party leadership election in September.

The hope for Koizumi, and perhaps for Japan, is that his personal popularity will protect him from such an inside coup.

Pessimistic, yes. But such has been the Japanese political experience since the end of World War II. And it is how the LDP has stayed in power for all but 10 months of those 45 years.