Posted on: Tuesday, August 14, 2001

Editorial
New marching orders for military? Stay tuned

It'll be a big week for America's military, as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld unveils the answers to a number of questions about what could be one of its most sweeping transformations in modern times.

His new Defense Strategy Review and Quadrennial Defense Review are expected to provide the outlines for the Bush administration's plans for a modern, efficient, high-tech military.

Rumsfeld reportedly is weighing two sharply differing proposals — one from his civilian subordinates that would substantially cut the military, while the other, from aides to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues for a military about the same size as it is now, about 1.4 million people on active duty.

Nor was it clear that Rumsfeld would adopt either proposal. Another possibility is a middle course, with less radical cuts that focus mainly on personnel in logistics and support units, rather than on front-line people or their gear.

The proposal by civilian analysts in the Pentagon's Office of Program Analysis, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, concluded that the armed forces could be reduced by well over 10 percent, with the Army losing about two of its 10 active-duty divisions.

How that would play as one of the brigades at Schofield Barracks reshapes into a prototype rapid-strike brigade is a question vital to everything from American defense commitments in Asia and the Pacific to Hawai'i's economy.

The civilian analysts also want to see the Air Force eliminate as many as 16 of its 61 fighter squadrons, with the Navy eventually giving up one or two of its 12 carrier battle groups.

One reason for such drastic cutbacks is that the budget as prepared by the Bush administration won't support the military as now constituted. Readiness is slipping, and Rumsfeld has new, costly high-tech priorities.

Yet a determination by Rumsfeld to cut substantially into the existing military corpus invites a big fight in Congress, which has already drawn lines in the sand regarding troop cutbacks, base closures and bomber cutbacks.

It promises to be an interesting week.