Candidates attentive to ethnic vote

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

As much as some wish to deny it, ethnicity plays an important role in Hawai'i politics.

To be sure, ethnicity is not destiny. Strong candidates attract support no matter what their ethnicity. And weak candidates won't win even with an overwhelming demographic edge.

But ethnicity is often the "first cut" in determining the strength of a candidate or an electoral team. That is, if the right match between candidate and dominant ethnic group in a district can be found, it is a first step toward victory.

This makes sense, particularly when the gap between voter and candidate appears to be widening. If you don't know much about candidates, you tend to look for signals that suggest a particular candidate thinks like you and cares about the things you care about. Among the typical signals are gender, age and — of course — ethnicity.

Which brings us to the governor's race. For the first time in a long time, the campaign for the state's top job will offer little in the way of ethnic diversity among the leading candidates.

All the visible candidates for governor thus far are Caucasian, with the exception of D. G. Anderson, who is part-Hawaiian.

But throughout his political career Anderson has not identified particularly as a Hawaiian. If anything, his political shorthand identity was "businessman."

Contrast that with former Gov. John Waihe'e, who was celebrated as a candidate of Hawaiian background.

This creates an interesting situation for voters of, say, Filipino, Chinese, Japanese and even Hawaiian ancestry. Where would they tend to gravitate?

Two of the candidates for governor are local-born: Anderson and state Rep. Ed Case. Jeremy Harris, Linda Lingle and John Carroll are Mainland-born although they have deep political roots in the Islands.

So, would the ethnic, or "local," vote tend to tilt toward Anderson or Case because of their kama'aina roots? That's possible, but it's not so obvious as to create that much confidence for the two "local boys."

Harris, for instance, can point out that he has taken on, and defeated, two highly qualified "local" candidates in his past two mayoral races: Arnold Morgado and Mufi Hannemann. Lingle, a Mainland haole, got her political career off to a successful start on the intensely local island of Moloka'i.

Ethnic bloc voting occurred in the past when candidates were able to signal (sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly) that they were particularly sensitive to the needs and desires of a particular ethnic group.

This was true whether it was Caucasian candidates signaling that they were prepared to take on the "good old boy" network of insider locals, or the AJA candidate signaling that he or she understood the aspirations or vulnerabilities of Japanese American voters and their families.

So if there is going to be any strong element of ethnic bloc voting in next year's governor's race, it will be because a candidate finds a way to tap into the particular passions of a particular demographic group.

My guess is that the prime target this time around will be Hawaiians.

Reach Jerry Burris through letters@honoluluadvertiser.com.