Crime rise seen as not unusual

By Brandon Masuoka
Advertiser Staff Writer

Serious crime in Honolulu increased 7 percent in October compared with the same month last year, but police and crime experts say it would be difficult to attribute that to any fallout from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Experts say the increase might be a continuation of a general trend from 1999, when Honolulu's serious crime rate dropped to a record low, rather than being the result of tough times in Hawai'i or higher unemployment since Sept. 11.

In the first look at O'ahu crime statistics since Sept. 11, an Advertiser review of monthly data compiled by the Honolulu Police Department shows that the seven categories of serious offenses reported increased from 4,116 in October 2000 to 4,408 this October.

The data provided by the department did not break down crimes by day, but the increase in the first full month after Sept. 11 was not significantly different from year-to-year increases in previous months.

For example, serious crimes committed in August were 11 percent higher than in August 2000.

Since Sept. 11, 37,000 unemployment claims have been filed in Hawai'i, fueling fears among experts who link high crime rates to economic downturns. But a police official said the 7 percent increase for October could be a normal spike not directly related to Sept. 11.

"We need to take a look at November and December, and see the numbers at the end of the year," said Deputy Chief Michael Carvalho. "I don't think people should panic. Police will do all we can to bring the numbers down with our resources."

Paul Perrone, chief of research and statistics for the state attorney general's office, said he found it hard to believe people would grow desperate enough to prey upon their neighbors.

"I wouldn't expect to see such an outcome immediately on the heels of Sept. 11," he said. "I would like to think Americans are more resilient than to revert to breaking into people's homes and stealing cars simply because they've been out of work for a couple of weeks."

If hard times persist, one could speculate that property crimes or thefts such as shoplifting and breaking into cars might increase, Perrone said.

He said world events such as the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks generally do not have the same immediate

effect on crime rates as they sometimes do on the stock market. If anything, he believes crime would decrease or level off.

"I think people would be less likely to prey upon their own communities when we've been collectively attacked in the most horrible way imaginable," he said.

Dean Yamashiro, chief deputy of the state public defender's office, also steered away from linking the October crime increase to recent political or economic events.

"Just because you're unemployed doesn't mean you're going to commit a crime," he said. "Most people don't commit crimes."

David Johnson, assistant professor of sociology at University of HawaiiiManoa, said catastrophic events can sometimes rally people together and act to control crime.

"Tragic events sometimes draw people together," he said. "Sociologists talk about 'solidarity' and 'social integration.' "

Johnson said he hoped the ripple effects from Sept. 11 wouldn't affect Hawai'i's crime rate in the future, but noted: "It's specifically hard when you're looking at short-term trends. It's somewhat better to look back through several decades of time. The most honest thing we could say is, 'It's hard to tell.' "

• • •