Analysis
China faces new pressure to conform
By John Leicester
Associated Press
MOSCOW — A Beijing Olympics won't bring multiparty democracy to China, free all political prisoners or give autonomy to Tibet. But it could help moderate China's behavior.
The 2008 Olympics, China's imminent entry to the World Trade Organization and its growing international status all bring responsibilities the rest of the world now expects Beijing to fulfill. Together, they increase pressure on the world's most populous nation to play by the rules.
"All these strings — while one by one relatively weak themselves — have a cumulative effect of limiting the freedom of motion of this huge Gulliver," said David Lampton, a China expert at Johns Hopkins University.
For China's Communist Party, winning the games is a boost that could extend its life. Communism is a dead ideology in today's market reform-oriented China. Instead, Chinese expect the government to raise living standards and their nation's standing. With the Olympics, Communist leaders can argue that they're delivering.
Harder to predict is how Chinese leaders will react to the international scrutiny in the next seven years before the Olympic flame is kindled in Beijing.
Expect Beijing to impress in 2008 with clean streets and welcoming residents who will be thrilled that the world is at their door. Already, cab drivers and city residents are learning English.
But will police sweep migrants, beggars and others deemed unsightly off the streets and into detention centers — as they did when Olympic inspectors visited Beijing this year?
Will dissidents such as Bao Tong, who is tailed by security agents whenever he leaves his Beijing home, be allowed to watch Olympic events?
It would be nice to think the Games could help end such government abuses. But so far, there are few signs of that.
Communist leaders pursued their often brutal crackdown on the Falun Gong despite their Olympic bid. In addition, Amnesty International reports that China executed at least 1,700 people in the last three months in a crackdown on crime.
Critics had argued the Chinese capital did not deserve the Olympic honor. So the International Olympic Committee's selection of Beijing is a victory for those who believe that the best way to change China is to engage it, rather than isolate it.
Certainly, the billions of dollars Beijing plans to spend on roads, subways, stadiums and cleaning its polluted air should provide jobs.
But when Chinese officials told IOC members that choosing Beijing would help improve human rights, they weren't thinking about suddenly letting protesters take to the streets or set up parties to challenge Communist rule.
They meant the right to work, to live in a cleaner city and to watch the world's best athletes compete for gold medals.
Change in a huge country with 1.26 billion people comes slowly. But it's possible the Beijing Games will strengthen reformist voices in government.
Chinese leaders "obviously will in the next seven years decide things that are absolutely abhorrent and incomprehensible to people abroad," Lampton said.
"But the fact that the global spotlight is going to be on them will be one more factor on the scale arguing for a more moderate approach."
