Posted on: Thursday, June 21, 2001

State's economic indicators fall for eighth month in row

Advertiser Staff

The leading economic indicator for Hawai'i, designed to foretell growth five to 10 months down the road, was down in March, the eighth monthly decline in a row.

The indicator, compiled by the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism and released yesterday, points to a continuing slowdown in business activity on the Mainland and in Japan as the key concerns for Hawai'i.

"As has been the case for the last several months, the national and international components of the LEI are signaling slower growth," said the department's director, Seiji Naya.

March is the latest month for which the index, which tracks 10 economic indicators, can be calculated. Since then, the Japanese and U.S. economies have continued to struggle.

Meanwhile, most of the components that directly relate to Hawai'i — including O'ahu real estate transactions and prices, average work hours, and construction permits — were positive.

"Our economy is doing pretty well right now," said Christopher Grandy, an economist with the Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism. "Job growth is 2.8 percent year to date through April, compared to 3.1 percent growth at the end of 2000.

"The strength we are feeling now is a residual from the healthy Mainland economy in 2000. If the Mainland deteriorates further and Japan doesn't improve, we will follow those two economies into the tank.

"How long Hawai'i can hang on to growth if the Mainland and Japan don't recover is the $38 billion question," Grandy said, referring to the size of Hawai'i's economy.