Hawaiian voters take the stage

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

Close readers of the editorial pages might have caught that recent exchange of letters between former Democratic Party Chairman Walter Heen and Republican Brian Durham on the issue of Hawaiian self-determination.

That exchange was only an early hint of what might be a powerful political fight in next year's elections: the battle for the hearts and minds of this state's Hawaiian voters.

In recent years there has been little evidence of bloc voting by those who identify themselves as Hawaiians. In territorial and early statehood years, Hawaiians tended to vote Republican, but more recently they divide up much as the general electorate does. The Advertiser Hawai'i Poll, for instance, finds that Hawaiian voters closely resemble the overall electorate in their political leanings. A trial heat poll between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George Bush, for example, found "Hawaiian" voters responding precisely as did the overall sample (50 percent for Gore, 30 percent for Bush and the rest undecided).

But there are hints that this could change. The ongoing legal challenges to Hawaiian entitlements and programs have united large numbers of Hawaiians around a single issue. While there is still uncertainty about sovereignty among Hawaiians, there is strong consensus around the desire to preserve programs such as the the Hawaiian Home Lands program.

If that consensus laps over into a political race, the Hawaiian voting bloc (roughly 20 percent) will suddenly become a major — perhaps even the deciding — factor in many races. This is particularly so as other traditional voting blocs (the AJAs primarily) become less monolithic with time.

Consider this: One of the biggest vote-getters in last year's elections was Clayton Hee, running statewide for a seat on the OHA board of trustees. That powerful turnout clearly contributes to the interest in Hee as a potential candidate for lieutenant governor next year. If he could get the same vote in that statewide race, he'd be a shoo-in.

It's true that not all of Hee's nearly 157,000 votes were from Hawaiians, but that's the core of his constituency.

So you can see why the various political parties are so interested in being seen on the "right" side of the Hawaiian entitlement issue.

One open question surrounds the formation of the new Aloha 'Aina Party, which directly appeals to Hawaiians and to Hawaiian interests. That party had little success in its maiden effort last year, failing to win even in districts where the population was heavily Hawaiian.

But if the party continues to push ahead, it should be more of a factor next year. The question is what kind of factor.

As a third party, Aloha 'Aina could drain Hawaiian votes away, thus lessening the impact of the Hawaiian bloc on the major races. Or, in the European tradition, it could build its grassroots support in the smaller districts and then — formally or informally — make a coalition with one of the major parties in the statewide races.

This could get interesting.

You can reach Jerry Burris through letters@honoluluadvertiser.com