Posted on: Friday, March 16, 2001

U.S., China on edge amid opening moves

Will the Bush team get off to a better start with China than with Korea?

Amazingly, with only a few words, President Bush not only embarrassed visiting South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, but causing Pyongyang angrily to halt what little there was in the way of a peace process.

Relations with China are even more complicated, nuanced and delicate, but China's top arms-control negotiator, Sha Zukang, his voice nearly quivering with anger, warned this week that Bush's plan for a national missile defense "is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst" and that the defense needs of Taiwan are "none of your business."

The Taiwanese are pressing for a U.S. commitment to sell them the Aegis battle management system, which Beijing fears could help them resist Chinese pressure for reunification. Sha singled the Aegis out as the worst possible item Washington could provide Taiwan.

In Beijing on the same day, Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of U.S. Pacific forces based here at Camp Smith, told the Chinese the best way to keep Washington from supplying the Aegis system to Taiwan was to stop adding 50 medium-range missiles per year to the already 300-plus that point at Taiwan from the Chinese coast.

Then in a major press conference in Beijing the next day, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, after saying his government wants long-term stable relations with Washington, blindsided the White House by revealing that Bush has been invited for a state visit to Beijing in October.

Bush had already announced plans to visit Shanghai at that time to attend the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, but Zhu had committed a minor diplomatic faux pas.

Such visits are typically announced jointly, and White House officials had intended to lay the groundwork for Bush's visit and announce it next week when Vice Premier Qian Qichen visits Bush.

That now puts the pressure on the White House to accept the invitation or look ungracious. Which may be exactly how Beijing is feeling, after the White House put off Qian's visit two days so Bush could meet first with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori on Monday, in keeping with indications that the Bush administration intends to replace Beijing with Tokyo at the top of its Asia priority list.

In other words, both sides are playing their opening gambits boldly. They must not forget that the goal is not one-upsmanship, but regional stability.