A big dose of Asia for President Bush
By Tom Plate
For quite different reasons, nothing that the former Texas governor ever encountered in Austin could have prepared him for the likes of Asian potentates Qian Qichen and Yoshiro Mori, in Washington this week for scheduled visits with the new American president.
The one is ultra-competent, the other something less. For George W. Bush, this week will prove his biggest dose of Asia yet.
Former foreign minister Qian Qichen, author and editor of serious works on foreign policy, is now China's vice premier. Despite representing an unlikable government, he is generally well respected in capitals across Asia, and this polished, personable and canny operator even has his share of admirers in the West.
That's because Qian is a patient listener and a persistent practitioner of face-saving compromise. Diplomacy, the secular art of talking up and nailing down areas of overlapping interest, aims to narrow differences to their irreducible minimum. Qian, though a lifelong Communist and tough on Taiwan, is by nature an accommodator.
That useful trait is needed in Washington now. For it will be his goal in talks with Bush and his advisers later this week to narrow differences between Washington and Beijing over a number of brittle issues before the Sino-U.S. gap grows any larger.
One issue is U.S. military aid to Taiwan; once again, that offshore island in the giant's shadow has requested the usual Christmas tree of new U.S. armaments.
The other problem derives from Bush's seemingly irreversible commitment to erect a vast missile defense system that he envisions as in our national interest — but that the Chinese fear will necessitate their investing in new offensive arsenals.
Even so, Beijing, reflecting on its own proclaimed goal of economic development for its people, must come to terms with (i.e., eschew paranoia about) reality. This is Bush's baby. Yes, such missile defense is misguided and maybe even dangerously destabilizing, but this Texas boy isn't about to put his baby up for adoption.
But, precisely because Qian will get few concessions from Bush, China should ask Washington not to go ballistic if and when China responds with a measured arms buildup of its own. It's imperative that Bush not chill the region with a new Cold War.
At the same time, China should also understand that the Bush administration is going to approve at least some if not all of Taiwan's urgent requests for new military aid. On this issue, however, Qian is right: Unrestricted U.S. arms for Taiwan would be inflammatory.
Bush should deal Taiwan just enough weapons cards to soothe its nerves without ruffling China's feathers. If Bush, who plans to visit China later this year, strikes from Taiwan's considerable wish list the quartet of requested missile-wielding, radar-equipped, Aegis-class destroyers, that may be the best Beijing can hope for. To gain further concession from Bush, China would have to be prepared to dismantle the new medium-range missile base it has built close to Taiwan.
The Americans should offer Qian the courtesy of listening carefully. But keeping a straight face in front of the week's second major visitor from Asia will be much harder. For it's not easy these days for people — even those in Japan — to take Yoshiro Mori seriously. Japan's blunder-prone prime minister has been a political disaster.
Japan's banks are teetering, its stock market is tumbling and its decade-long recession threatens to get even worse and drag other economies, including America's, down with it. No matter: The political establishment proceeds apace, pocketing its sordid kickbacks and bowing to the vested interests. This is Japan's biggest defining moment since it picked itself up from the ashes of World War II, and its politicians are playing golf as usual.
Japan needs a great statesman who can rally his people behind the call for reform and work competently with the new Bush administration — which has made it clear, certainly more than its predecessor, that it deeply values Japan as an ally. A great Japanese leader would seize this moment in U.S.-Japan relations and publicly engage Washington in a historic joint effort to sort out its titanic economic problems.
The Japanese and the Americans should erect the highest level Japan-American Commission on the Two Allied Economies, creating a pristine venue for the wisest thinkers to focus on the economic policies of their respective governments — the two largest economies in the world — and make recommendations that could add up to a trans-Pacific consensus.
Japan and America, in other words, need to act like true allies at a time of growing crisis in which they are both ensnared — and which threatens to ensnare the entire region.
Tom Plate, a professor in communication studies and policy studies at UCLA, is a columnist for The Honolulu Advertiser and The South China Morning Post.
