Census shows a shift in political landscape

The shifting sands of O'ahu's population as captured in the latest Census is of more than academic interest.

The pattern of older neighborhoods "hollowing out" while new suburbs grow will have substantial political impact in the near future.

Advertiser staff writer Walter Wright reports that seven of 12 of the most populated census regions on O'ahu actually lost population between 1990 and today. This is largely the result of smaller average household sizes in the older neighborhoods.

The explanation for this is fairly obvious: It is the universal pattern of aging neighborhoods becoming less populous as families grow up and children strike out on their own.

This phenomenon did not show up quite as dramatically in Hawai'i in past Census counts because there were — relatively — fewer options for moving. Hawai'i suffered a housing shortage for years following statehood. What new stock was being built was often too expensive for young people looking for their first home.

Thus many neighborhoods remained stable, or even became more dense as families added second stories or crammed more relatives into what was already there.

But with the opening of new, more affordable suburbs in Kapolei and elsewhere in West O'ahu, the opportunity to move presented itself.

The political impact of all this will be felt as soon as the next elections, when Hawai'i will have newly redrawn legislative district lines. There will be a definite shift west, with more representation coming from areas around Makakilo and Kapolei and less from older neighborhoods from Mo'ili'ili to Pearl City.

It is crucial that the reapportionment effort soon to begin fairly reflect these demographic and population trends. There is always a tendency to look for lines that protect the turf of incumbents over the interests of voters.

And remember, voters in these new districts may continue to "look" like the old districts in terms of ethnicity, but their politics and voting behavior is likely to be different. These are younger families whose primary concerns are the cost of living, schools and jobs. The older neighborhoods produced voters for whom loyalty to the Democratic Party remained a strong motivating force.

In short, there are opportunities opening for Hawai'i's Republicans and for Democrats who can create a fresh message that responds to a changed political landscape.