Development Bank meeting is for all voices
It is not clear whether that number used by Assistant Police Chief Boisse Correa is the result of unusually sound intelligence information or is simply a good guess.
But either way, it is instructive as law enforcement officials prepare security plans for the upcoming Honolulu meeting of the Asian Development Bank, May 9-11.
The bank meeting is expected to attract a large number of protesters and others who have concern about multinational business and bank lending and development policies.
Correa says he and other local officials expect that "95 percent" of the demonstrations and protests will be peaceful.
That's an encouraging number, but it still leaves a 5 percent possibility that there could be violent protest similar to what was witnessed in Seattle at the World Trade Organization meeting.
So security officials are absolutely required to plan for that off-chance of violence.
But it is critical particularly because Honolulu is still trying to develop its reputation as an ideal venue for such international meetings that the 5 percent does not drive security reaction to the other 95 percent.
That is, the widest possible provision must be made for those who wish to criticize the ADB, either through teach-ins, alternative seminars and meetings or street demonstrations.
Honolulu must show in concrete terms that it is not afraid of alternative voices. We must demonstrate that we are ready to serve as a gathering place, not just for international bankers, but for their critics as well.
The process of questioning the ADB and its policies will take place on many levels. Indeed, the bank is perhaps its own harshest critic. There has been a great deal of soul-searching within the ADB in recent years about the social and environmental impacts of its lending policies.
There will be official functions as part of the ADB meeting that will examine these questions and challenge from within thinking about the bank's mission.
Then there will be officially recognized "non-bank" meetings that will take place in and around the dates of the bank meetings. These will attempt to bring supporters and critics together to look deeply at the work of the bank. There will also be non-sanctioned forums as well as free-form demonstrations and protests.
All of these functions should go on with as much latitude as possible. The security clamp-down that might be necessary in a worst-case scenario must not become the driving response to these other activities.
The operative theory in security planning is to plan for the worst but expect the best. Correa said the commitment is for a "well-disciplined, well-trained, tolerant and controlled police presence."
Those are encouraging words. As long as they include a well-rounded understanding of what the rights of free speech and assembly are all about, there is every reason to expect this meeting to be a success.