Commentary
Running for governor in 2002 won't hurt too many careers
By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian
By Halloween there were three announced candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination for governor — Honolulu mayor Jeremy Harris, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono and state Rep. Ed Case.
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Add one old war horse, D.G. "Andy" Anderson, who is "testing the waters" by standing in it over his head, and you have four.
Is D.G. "Andy" Anderson ready to take advantage of what could be his last hurrah?
If the primary election were held today, how do they finish?
In this order: Harris, Hirono, Anderson, Case.
What about in the long run?
By New Year's Day, Anderson's TV ads work, and he makes significant gains. Voters discouraged by politicians encourage Case. As these two score points, a cacophony of contentious voices fill the air, unsettling some Harris support. Case, tortoiselike but smiling serenely, inches up. Hirono holds her voters.
By April Fools' Day, more undecided voters make up their minds. Hirono keeps her O'ahu votes, and picks up voters on the Neighbor Islands. Anderson's name recognition soars. He makes significant gains on O'ahu, mostly taking away from Harris, who is the other candidate with a CEO image. A lip-wise lawyer, Case berates the Harris record. By making integrity an issue, he goads Harris into defending the croaking toadies in the Honolulu Hale chorus.
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By the Fourth of July, the Harris lead is slim but holding. Hirono and Anderson are neck and neck, with 20 to 25 percent of the vote. Case is closing on an impressive 15 percent. The undecideds have shrunk to around 10 percent.
Rep. Ed Case will gain political capital for the long run even if he loses now.
Now comes those three do-or-die, make-or-break weeks to filing day.
Sen. Dan Inouye and other kingmakers are closely watching the polls, especially those that pit each of the four candidates against Linda Lingle, the GOP standard-bearer. The Democrat showing the best numbers in that race gets a big push from those high and mighty powers-that-be. The also-rans in the poll, by agreeing not to file, are offered a deal. Or they can face banishment by those on high, stay the course, and run the risk of a political career-ending loss.
What are the chances of these four Democratic candidates filing nomination papers on July 23, 2002? My guesses, in alphabetical order:
• Anderson gets bipartisan support from anti-Lingle Republicans and anti-Harris Democrats. Chief proselytizers are Judge Ambrose Rosehill, a GOP political force from the past, and Judge Walter Heen, the former head of the state Democratic Party.
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Part-Hawaiian and movie star handsome, businessman Anderson has an appealing resume for these economically troubled times. At 71, the father of three is the oldest contender for the top job. His previous attempts to be governor failed. But those who supported him then do so again. He also excites the interest of folks who moved here after his glory days had passed.
Mayor Jeremy Harris will follow Dan Inouye's advice if push comes to shove.
This is the last political hurrah for Anderson, and many of his top senior-citizen supporters. He's in it for the duration, and this time without any deficits in attention, they hope.
• Case, relying heavily on his kama'aina 'ohana for grassroots organizing, gets some financial help from old school ties. In his uphill race, Case has to mine more than undecided votes. He must take votes away from the front-runner, which he will do. With greater name recognition and more state-wide contacts, Case becomes a somebody who is well positioned to run in two years for a seat in Washington, D.C. Or the Honolulu mayor's chair.
No reason not to stay in the race. Case gains by the day.
• Harris, running on his record and toeing a centrist line, is favored. He's strong on O'ahu with "visioners," but politically untested on the Neighbor Islands, save Kaua'i, where he won a seat on the council and lost a bid for mayor. So, he's on a Neighbor Island every weekend campaigning hard for the votes of just plain folks.
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If politics were poker, you could bet that Harris wouldn't fold. But it ain't no penny-ante card game. And when the stakes got high four years ago, Harris was convinced to fold his gubernatorial campaign and support that of Ben Cayetano, who he surely would have beaten in the primary. Harris could do the same this time, and finish his term as a high profile mayor of a major American city.
Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono will not face a setback in her political career if her bid fails.
A pragmatist, he'll probably do what makes the most political sense to Dan Inouye. Most likely, Inouye will tell him to stay.
• Hirono is the only candidate for governor who has won a statewide race. And she has done it twice. With the support of public-worker unions, she has good grassroots support on all islands. What she doesn't have is a full war chest, and that causes her concern and troubles her supporters.
As the only woman candidate and the only candidate of Japanese ancestry, her base is solid. But it's not big enough to carry her to victory on Election Day. She needs to keep her labor support. Anderson has made a move on it, but it's hers to lose.
Will Hirono accept that "offer she can't refuse"? With encouragement coming from former Gov. John Waihe'e, I think she'll stick it out. Her stature in the community is too high for a loss to end her public service career. So, why not go for broke?
Q: If Harris passes on the governor's race, what about all of those mayoral candidates — Duke Bainum, Frank Fasi, Mufi Hannemann, Keith Kaneshiro? What will become of them?
A: There'll be no special election in 2002. They can cool their considerable ambitions until the next mayor's race in 2004.
Warning: This race for governor is distance, not dash. For us voters, it will seem to be one endless political night. For the candidates, too.
