Commentary
Asian leaders who back U.S. now likely to reap benefits later
By Tom Plate
HONG KONG — An informal regional report card on the anti-terrorism war surfaced last week at the first major nongovernmental international economic conference held since the Sept. 11 attacks.
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While the United States garnered sympathy for what it has endured, the Bush administration did not win high marks in the strategic-thinking department for the bombing campaign.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is gaining stature in the United States political arena for playing an active role in the anti-terror war.
Many delegates — including Asian government officials, economists, chief executive officers from all over and well-known experts — attending the World Economic Forum East Asia Economic Summit here judged the bombing policy a loser diplomatically, although perhaps militarily justifiable.
The Bush administration has called the anti-terror effort a new kind of war, but its approach to date looks to be an all-too-familiar rerun of the Persian Gulf videotaped air-drop extravaganza, complete with the subplot of civilian casualties. The technologically driven pounding that the Bush administration — notwithstanding its justified anti-Taliban rage — is laying on woebegone Afghanistan looks not to be America's finest hour policy-wise. Even if the United States defeats the Taliban, America could wind up the big loser in world and Islamic opinion.
Another apparent loser is the Asian economy. It was sliding into recession before Sept. 11 and now looks even worse. South Korea's Minister of Finance and Economy Jin Nyum noted that "the plight of the global economies has been compounded by the terrorist attacks." Summit delegates were well aware that consumers in the world's No. 1 economy (the United States) are so spooked that they are not gobbling up as many Asian exports these days. At the same time, reform of the world's No. 2 (Japan) economy is stuck in gridlock. If these gargantuan economies are in trouble, what can one smile about?
There was optimism at the summit, in that the new anti-terrorism geopolitical environment seems to be producing geopolitical leaders.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, by giving his blessing to former Soviet provinces in Central Asia that are cooperating with the U.S. military, has racked up many useful brownie points with President Bush. He compares favorably to the excessively cautionary Chinese President Jiang Zemin, who will miss the boat big time if he doesn't get on the anti-terror bandwagon. Even though Sino-U.S. relations improved after Jiang met Bush in Shanghai last month, Beijing has been presented with a rare opportunity to impress the U.S. public with deeds as well as words.
Too bad Jiang wasn't here to observe Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in action. What a dynamo! She bluntly termed Muslim extremism "subhuman behavior" and reported on how her country's Islamic leaders were one by one distancing themselves from Osama bin Laden.
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Delegates here also praised Japan, not for its too-slow economic reform effort but for its relatively quick anti-terror commitment. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is trying hard to juke around embedded constitutional restraints on forward military action by inducing the Diet to allow Japanese ships to take up support positions in the Indian Ocean. For this effort, the Japanese could wind up with enhanced regional influence, perhaps at China's expense. Laughs one knowing Taiwan official, "Beijing doesn't know how to stop them."
Chinese President Jiang Zemin is left on the sidelines as the anti-terror war intensifies.
Pakistan could wind up a big winner, too — assuming America defeats al-Qaida and Gen. Pervez Musharraf's military government weathers extremist challenges.
Certainly, Pakistan's international image got a lift from the polished presentations of Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz. N.K. Singh, a government representative from rival India, was visibly impressed. Explained one delegate: "India's no friend of Pakistan, but it's very sympathetic to Pervez's plight."
Everyone worried about Indonesia, home to the world's largest Muslim population. But as Jusuf Wanandi, publisher of the Jakarata Post, put it, reports of his country's anti-Americanism are greatly exaggerated. President Megawati Sukarnoputri, like Arroyo in Manila, could come up a big winner in the eyes of international opinion if she can keep her country's huge Muslim community out of the streets and at least neutral on the American effort.
But more U.S. bombing, with its inevitable civilian toll, won't make it any easier for her.
As Arroyo put it: "Let's not let the isolated opinion become the majority opinion."
Tom Plate, a columnist with The Honolulu Advertiser and the South China Morning Post, is a professor at UCLA. He also has a spot on the Web.
