Analysis
A party in turmoil, or in charge?
| • | Hirono shift to mayor reshapes political field |
By Frank Cho and Vicki Viotti
Advertiser Staff Writers
An unbroken string of successful political hand-offs that stretches back three decades was shattered yesterday when Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono announced she will not run for governor.
Bruce Asato • The Honolulu Advertiser
Until then, Hirono was the presumptive heir of a Democratic Party political dynasty that took power shortly after statehood. Her decision raises serious questions about that dynasty: Whether it will continue and, if so, who will get its support?
Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono greets supporter Albert Aoki warmly after she announced yesterday that she will run for mayor of Honolulu.
Several theories emerged yesterday.
One is that the Democratic Party "dynasty" — or "machine" as some have called it — has seen its last hurrah.
Another is that this tough, pragmatic group remolded itself once again, to clear the track for front-runner Jeremy Harris.
A third possibility, of course, is that the old coalition of ethnic voters, labor unions and other Democratic regulars will come to rest behind former Republican Sen. D. G. "Andy" Anderson, who has yet to formally announce his candidacy as a Democrat. A number of prominent old-time Democrats, including former party chairman Walter Heen and former University of Hawai'i President Fujio Matsuda, have endorsed Anderson's candidacy.
Among those tilting toward the theory that the party has lost its center is former Gov. George Ariyoshi, Hawai'i's longest-sitting governor and the embodiment of what the party has stood for.
"The party has been factionalized beyond anything in my day," said Ariyoshi, who served from 1973 to 1986.
Ariyoshi said Hawai'i's people are looking for someone who can articulate a vision for the state before they throw their support behind any one candidate. The candidate who can communicate that vision to voters, Ariyoshi said, is going to be the one to win the traditional Democratic Party support.
Since John Burns was elected governor in 1962, the Democratic Party has controlled the governor's mansion by a coalition of ethnic groups, labor unions and an approach to politics that emphasized "local" values and ethnicity. Each governor since Burns has been able to pass on the office to his lieutenant governor. Ariyoshi, John Waihe'e and Ben Cayetano all went on to become governors.
But holding that coalition together has gotten harder for each succeeding candidate. Over the years, changing voter demographics, as well as some increasingly high-profile battles between unions and Hawai'i's heavily Democratic Legislature and governor's office, have reinforced the impression that the party is fragmented.
Others see Hirono's departure less as a sign of party weakness than a signal that the "machine" still calls the shots. In that camp is former mayor Frank Fasi, who has battled the establishment Democrats for decades.
"It's the machine type of politics that forces someone out of the race," Fasi said. "It's a complete surprise to all of us. She was determined to be a candidate; she said it all along... all of a sudden, it changes.
"Jeremy Harris has been in the race," he added. "Don't you think the party leaders got together and decided that he had a better chance?"
Another who believes the established Democratic Party still has wheels is longtime political consultant and advisor Jack Seigle. Seigle was instrumental in generations of winning Democratic campaigns, from Burns through Cayetano.
"I think the demise of the Democratic Party and its relationship with Hawai'i's unions (is) greatly exaggerated," he said.
University of Hawai'i political scientist Ira Rohter contends that the Democrats can no longer count on the support of the unions, as they have for nearly 50 years, and suggests that Cayetano is responsible.
"I think the Democrats are falling apart, and the traditional Democratic candidate who was ethnic and close to the unions is gone," Rohter said.
Rohter said that as new generations of voters replace those who grew up during the "plantation era," they will not have the same unquestioning loyalty to the Democratic Party and will vote for whichever candidate can attract and keep their interest. Indeed, Republican Linda Lingle came within 5,000 votes of unseating Cayetano in 1998, a showing that was unthinkable only a few years before.
"You don't have those racial markers anymore," Rohter said. "The (Democratic) machine would have won 20 years ago with a weak candidate like Hirono, but now you have a generation who are not as committed as their parents were."
"I think Cayetano put the nail in the coffin; he really just drove a huge wedge between the party and the unions in the last few years, and Mazie is dealing with the result of that."
