Japanese travel a sore spot in economic forecast
| • | Mainland bookings still low at JTB |
By Timothy Hurley
Advertiser Maui County Bureau
KAHULUI, Maui — A forecast that shows Hawai'i's economy slowly recovering remains on track except for one troubling area: international travel.
Paul Brewbaker, a top private forecaster and chief economist for Bank of Hawaii, said the Japanese, in particular, are continuing to stay away from the islands, leaving daily international passenger counts 50 percent of what they were before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
The war in Afghanistan and other terrorist-related uncertainties, such as the anthrax scares, likely are playing a role in continuing to put the brakes on Japanese travel, said Brewbaker, who spoke yesterday to the Maui Chamber of Commerce.
The economist said that if had he given his speech prior to Sept. 11, he would have predicted a continued 3 percent growth of Hawai'i's economy.
Now, however, Hawai'i tourism industry could take more than a year to recover from the ripple effects of the attacks and ensuing decline in travel, and economic growth in the Islands likely will be hampered for at least that long.
According to Brewbaker's October economic forecast, tourism will probably remain as much as 20 percent below last year's levels until 2002, only then gradually getting back on track.
But getting to where the economy would have been without the attacks may take more than a year or two, Brewbaker said.
While tourist arrivals to Hawai'i have increased since the first week after the attacks — when arrivals were down 46.5 percent — arrivals are still off 25 percent, he said.
But Neighbor Island passenger counts have recovered much better than O'ahu, he said. The reason is that airlines already had begun building nonstop capacity direct to Neighbor Island destinations from North America.
O'ahu's heavier dependence on business travel, combined with travelers' growing preference for direct-to-Neighbor Island travel, has limited O'ahu's recovery, he said.
Nevertheless, Brewbaker said, Mainland visitor levels are on track to recover by mid-2002.
However, international travel is much less certain. Japanese travel numbers are still down from last year's levels, and it is unclear when they will recover, he said.
