The September 11th attack
Experts try to gauge when travel will rebound

Gannett News Service

WASHINGTON — Hotels in Las Vegas were 93 percent full the last weekend of September thanks to cheap deals to lure tourists who had been staying home since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

The Stratosphere Casino and Hotel on the Las Vegas Strip dropped weekday rates to $49, along with discounted food and entertainment offers.

"That's been a key focus — getting bodies in the room and bodies in the casino," said Mike Gilmartin, the hotel's public relations manager. "Right now, there's just a lot of great values."

But Las Vegas, which remains down from a year ago, is an anomaly among a tourist industry hit by a sagging economy and security concerns.

In Anaheim, Calif., home of Disneyland, hotels saw occupancy rates plunge 46 percent below those of a year ago in the week that ended Sept. 22, said Jeff Dallas, a hospitality expert at Ernst and Young.

Hotels, airlines and resorts have laid off tens of thousands across the nation. Experts are trying to predict the travel industry's future amid mixed reports.

• In an AAA survey last week of 490 leisure travelers, about half said they planned to spend the same on trips in the next year as they did this year and nearly a quarter said they'd spend more.

• The Travel Industry Association of America said in a survey of 1,000 U.S. adults that 58 percent planned to take a leisure trip within the next six months, and that financial concerns rather than security fears were the biggest reasons keeping people home.

• The National Business Travel Association said 70 percent of travel managers surveyed said business travel would recover within three to six months, 12 percent expect a recovery in nine months and 18 percent said it would take 10 months or longer. Although security concerns were the top reason companies gave for restricting travel, the second most common reason was finances.

"Companies were already pulling back on business travel prior to September 11," said Allison Marble, a spokeswoman for the business travel association.

To counter airline cutbacks, hotels from Miami to Los Angeles are offering deep discounts while tourism officials are trying to promote regional travel.

Vermont hotels saw a host of cancellations during the state's prime leaf-watching season after Sept. 11 but business has picked up, said David Kaufman, president of Vermont Tourism Network. This winter, Vermont could see fewer skiers from overseas, but more regional travelers who won't fly west, he said.

"If we have the excellent snow conditions like last winter, I predict Vermont will have an excellent winter," he said. "At this point, I don't know of anyone who's complained about a drop-off in winter bookings."

Ernst and Young's Dallas said hotel occupancies are working their way back up but it remains an open question as to when the industry will fully recover.

"Thanksgiving will be a big snapshot," he said.