Political speculation resurfaces

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

After Sept. 11, the ordinarily delightful game of political speculation seems almost pointless.

But — as our president keeps telling us — life must go on. So, too, then will political speculation and the wary dance around options as we head into next year's huge political season.

It has become increasingly clear that the top-to-bottom election slate next year is far from complete. There are simply too many options, too many ways this three-dimensional game of chess can be played to see things clearly this far out. And as Sept. 11 showed us, the plans we make today can be changed instantly and permanently tomorrow.

Still, here we are. And Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono poured gasoline on the speculative fires last week when she declined to be drawn into conversation about her political future. There were strong signals that she was at least reconsidering her candidacy for governor and was testing the idea of running instead for mayor of Honolulu.

Hirono quite properly put such questions into perspective. The state is facing a severe economic crisis, and that is where her full attention is focused, she said. The governor had asked her to go to Washington to plead Hawai'i's difficult case with Congress and administration officials.

So as much as inquiring minds wanted to know, Hirono wasn't ready to play.

And then into this ambiguous situation stepped state House Democrat Ed Case, who announced he will run for governor. The immediate thought was that Case was motivated in part by the possibility that Hirono would be out of the picture.

But it is clearly more complicated than that. Case has been a maverick Democrat in the House and has been pushed out of the inner power circle. He has strong ideas, but they are being given little attention in the Legislature right now.

So why not take those ideas to another forum: the campaign for governor? There is little to lose and much to gain with such a step. If Case's political vision for the state catches fire with the voters, the Legislature will be forced to pay attention.

And even if his campaign falls short, he will have increased his statewide name recognition and positioned himself nicely for a future run at either the state or federal level.

A Case candidacy is likely to have more direct impact on

Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris than it will on Hirono. They have some of the same political appeal, including their willingness to take on the influential public employee unions over issues such as privatization. And both men are outside the Democratic political lineage that has produced every governor since the late John A. Burns.

In a strange way, Case's candidacy may not point to a fading Hirono campaign but, in fact, could vitalize it. He will take some votes that otherwise presumably would have gone to Harris, making Hirono's chances somewhat stronger.

If Mazie Hirono decides to run for mayor, it won't be because the other candidates for governor drove her out.