Posted on: Wednesday, October 31, 2001

Editorial
Why should U.S. honor Ramadan?

President Bush is faced with a ticklish dilemma as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan nears.

On the one hand, Bush is under pressure to begin to deliver, sooner rather than later, results in his war on terrorism. Moreover, the Pentagon is afraid that a bombing pause would give the Taliban and al-Qaida time to regroup.

Other concerns are that the effectiveness of the air campaign after Ramadan will be diluted by bad winter weather, and perhaps most important in some quarters, food-delivery programs will be almost impossible. Humanitarian disaster would be blamed by many on the American campaign.

On the other hand, Bush must consider the effects of his decision on whether to continue to bomb during Ramadan on his perilously fragile anti-terror coalition. Most broadly, the Muslim nations, tentative in their commitment at best, express a preference that the Americans not mar the holy month with warfare.

This is partly disingenuous; Ramadan has hardly presented historically a strict ban on fighting. Egypt and Syria launched the 1973 war on Israel during Ramadan.

But Bush must still consider the negative ramifications of proceeding too fast, thus giving the Northern Alliance a chance to capture the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif or even Kabul.

Does Bush really want such an outcome? True, it would mark the defeat of the Taliban. But the more we learn about Afghanistan, the more simplistic thinking gives way to facts.

One fact is that the last time the Northern Alliance captured Mazar-e-Sharif, it massacred an estimated 3,000 people. When the Taliban retook the city, it killed an estimated 2,000. Even now it reportedly is executing residents suspected of sympathizing with the Northern Alliance.

The Northern Alliance's leadership is sophisticated enough to understand how badly another massacre would reflect on Bush and imperil the coalition. But the Northern Alliance is a loose one, with little control over tribal commanders in the field.

A bombing pause during Ramadan thus would not only provide cosmetic comfort to the shakier coalition members, but it would provide more time to attempt to cobble together an effective national government-in-exile.

One cost of pausing for Ramadan is an appearance of weakness or indecision on the part of Bush and his coalition. But a benefit is that it may keep us from plunging blindly into a result that's little better than the status quo.