The September 11th attack
Attacks almost certain to slow tourism, travel
By Michele Kayal
Advertiser Staff Writer
It was just one day after terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center and damaged the Pentagon that Marsha Wienert and her entourage of half-a-dozen Maui tourism professionals found themselves in a Jeep Cherokee 4x4 barreling from Keokuk, Iowa, to St. Louis, desperate to get a flight home as soon as possible.
"Everybody wants to get home," said the Maui Visitors Bureau executive director, who cut short her team's Midwest media blitz. "When you're home you feel in your own little cocoon and it's a lot safer. That's really the mindset of everybody here with me."
That desire to stick near home hit a lot of people that day, and in the first 24 hours after the attack, Hawai'i tourism executives took hundreds of cancellations from groups and individuals. And many say they fear that the trend is only beginning.
More than recession, more than consumer pessimism, war and violence take their toll on the world's tourism industry. During the Gulf War of 1991 — which never touched U.S. shores — Hawai'i lost about a quarter of its visitor traffic.
Losses in billions
Analysts are predicting that last week's attacks on New York and the Pentagon could cut billions of dollars from sales in the travel and tourism industries, which account for 6 percent of the U.S. economy. Airlines could rack up losses of more than $10 billion, the hotel industry could post the worst performance in 33 years, and nine out of 10 corporate travel managers say they expect to curtail air travel in the coming weeks, according to various analyses and surveys released last week.
In Hawai'i, where the visitor industry provides more than 25 percent of the economy, executives have begun trying to fathom all the possible scenarios that could befall the state's No. 1 business. But, they concede universally, it's just too early to tell what might happen next.
"Everyone's just focusing on this week," said Philip Calian, chief executive officer of American Classic Voyages. "We haven't even gotten mail to see if checks arrived or not (for deposits on future bookings)."
The initial impact struck a multimillion-dollar blow to a local tourism industry already coping with slower times than last year. Within the first 48 hours, the Hawaii Visitors & Convention Bureau counted cancelations from at least 25 groups and more than 350 individuals who were to visit between now and mid-November.
Japan's major tour operators canceled all departures to Hawai'i, Guam, Saipan, the Mainland, Canada and Mexico for three days. Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany canceled all flights to the United States for the same period.
Hotels also felt an immediate pinch, and over the next few days expect to run occupancies that mimic being completely empty.
The four Waikiki Sheraton hotels will show occupancy that is 20 to 30 points lower than they expected to have this week, said Karen Hughes, Starwood Hotels & Resorts regional director of marketing. In Waikiki alone, Hughes said, the chain will lose about 4,000 room nights, or the equivalent of having all four hotels completely empty for one night.
Frank Lavey, general manager of the Hyatt Regency Waikiki Resort and Spa said he expects to lose 1,500 room nights this week — or the equivalent of having the hotel completely empty for one night, and only 20 percent full the next.
Wait-and-see approach
After the attack, American Classic Voyages had only four people leave the Patriot, which was sailing Hawai'i, said chief operating officer Rod McLeod. But cancellations for cruises that begin this weekend hovered around the 20 percent mark on Friday.
"Frankly, this is day by day," McLeod said. "We're not quite sure how many people will show up."
And beyond next week is anybody's guess, Lavey and other say.
"Everybody is taking a wait-and-see approach," Lavey said. "People's comfort with travel is going to be based on the severity of whatever retaliatory efforts are engaged. Everybody knows something is pending, but they don't know what or how big. We're not sure what to expect."
Before the tragedy of last week, Lavey said Hyatt was forecasting growth in the year 2002.
Visitors bureau chief executive officer Tony Vericella said he expects corporate meetings and incentive travel, as well as other business travel, to be the first affected, as companies bag Hawai'i outings out of propriety and economic uncertainty. Leisure travel will be the last piece affected, Vericella said.
"The attitude of consumers, businesses, and associations toward travel — not just U.S. people and Japanese, but the whole world — will evolve over a period of time," he said. "But we should start seeing some trends. The expectation would be that immediately after, you would expect people to kind of freeze and postpone whatever they thought they were going to do."
The bureau will review its marketing efforts both on the Mainland and Japan over the next several weeks, Vericella said to determine where to concentrate resources in the future.
In the end, uncertainty will play a large role in what happens to Hawai'i and its visitor industry over the next weeks and months, experts said. The sooner U.S. reaction and the situation becomes clear, they say, the sooner the true impact can be known.
"If we all sit with the uncertainty of not knowing what we're going to do, that's going to make people very nervous about traveling," said travel trends expert Peter Yesawich. "But if we get some answers and some actions, it diminishes some of that anxiety."
"This is not something that we're all going to watch on TV," he added. "It's going to affect everybody in the travel business. How significantly, we don't know."
Advertiser News services contributed to this report. Michele Kayal can be reached at mkayal@honoluluadvertiser.com
