The September 11th attack
U.S. air travel gaining pace

Advertiser News Services

The state is closely tracking air travel to Hawai'i and looking for a break in the 37 percent average decline since flights resumed three days after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the East Coast.

•	On The Web Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/special

A page on the Web site for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism gives updated preliminary data on the Sept. 11 attacks' impact on Hawai'i tourism, including passenger arrivals at the state's airports and weekly claims for unemployment benefits.

Nationally, after hitting "rock bottom" Sept. 18, the number of air travelers is improving, but industry officials and analysts say it's far too soon to declare victory. Industry estimates for average passenger loads in the United States a week after the attacks in New York and Washington were 37 percent, far below the 72 percent domestic average in August.

When combined with international flights, the numbers were still dismal that day: Just 561,932 people flew, filling 47 percent of the industry's seats. That compares with 1.3 million people, filling 71 percent of the seats, on Sept. 18, 2000. Monday, the loads were estimated to be 48 percent, with 744,388 passengers flying major airlines.

The increases in the last week are heartening, but dampened by the fact that most airlines have cut the number of flights by as much as 20 percent, analysts say.

"There's nothing to cheer about yet," says UBS Warburg airline analyst Sam Buttrick.

Goldman Sachs airline analyst Glenn Engel says that when cuts in capacity are considered, comparing 50 percent passenger loads with 70 percent loads "means your traffic is down 40 percent, which is not good."

Engel estimates that it could take the industry six months to a year to get back to pre-attack passenger loads. He bases the estimate on the effects of previous terrorist actions overseas while recognizing that the declines this time have already been "twice as steep" as after past crises.

"We're in uncharted waters," says Engel. "We don't know whether more actions will occur that will make people more nervous and keep them home."

Locally, during the first 10 days of September an average of 19,206 passengers arrived in Hawai'i from all points, excluding Canada.

Starting Sept. 14, the first full day of air travel after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted the ban imposed immediately after the attacks, the number of passengers arriving in Hawai'i from the Mainland until Sept. 19, the latest date for which figures were available, averaged 11,383. That compared to an average of 18,453 for the same period in 2000.

The preliminary number arriving on international flights, excluding visitors from Canada, averaged 2,463 per day, down 53 percent from the same period in 2000, when 54,072 international airline passengers averaged 5,407 per day.

The number of travelers from abroad climbed from 1,691 on Sept. 15 to the period's high of 3,088 on Sunday. International figures covered Sept. 15-24.

The daily arrival count of overseas air travelers includes residents, military people and passengers in transit as well as tourists, the department said.

The number of passengers arriving from the U.S. Mainland fell, from an average of 13,073 arriving per day during Sept. 14-19, 2000, to an average of 9,749 for the same period this year, with no clear trend emerging.

Honolulu and Maui suffered the most decline in average number of passengers, while the Big Island and Kaua'i saw little change. The Big Island had just over 3,400 passengers from the Mainland for the same periods this year and last. Kaua'i had about 1,700 both years.

The unemployment figures on the site reflect the overall downturn in arrivals to the state, the department said.