COMMENTARY
Anderson vs. Lingle, once unbelievable, is quite possible
By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian
Political candidates soon will have to decide to fish or cut bait. The last day to file nomination papers is just 114 days away, on July 23.
What do the races in the major party primaries look like on this first Sunday in April?
Democratic Primary
With the Harris campaign on hold and Ed Case occupied in the Legislature, D.G. "Andy" Anderson has had the spotlight pretty much to himself lately. He has taken advantage of it, and on Case's home turf — the Legislature — by offering "a better way to use the hurricane fund." The governor liked the idea and so did many of Case's colleagues. Anderson got good press, but will he ever get a wink and nod from Sen. Dan Inouye? Or will former gov. John Waihee be motioned in from the bullpen?
• Anderson has picked up the support of a number of Neighbor Island residents who had supported the aborted gubernatorial campaign of Mazie Hirono, now a candidate for Honolulu mayor. One of them, former state Sen. Joe Tanaka, is helping to coordinate the Anderson campaign on Maui. Tanaka is well respected and a veteran campaigner. Anderson gains strength on the Big Island, but has yet to finalize a Kaua'i campaign organization.
D.G. "Andy" Anderson
On O'ahu Anderson is putting together a coalition of big-name Democrats who were active during the Ariyoshi/Fasi/Gill years. The support of all three former factions of the veteran Democrats, plus that of organized labor (if he gets more of it), will make Anderson a strong contender.
What was hard to believe a few months ago, Anderson vs. Lingle in the November general election, is now a real possibility.
Anderson's campaign will bear the mark of seasoned professionals who have delivered winners to Washington Place in the past. Anderson is counseled by the legendary Joe Napolitan and Jack Seigle.
• Case describes his campaign as a "long, slow but accelerating curve."
Rep. Ed Case
Name recognition continues to be a problem, he says, but that is improving: "My name recognition and favorability rating are rising hand-in-hand." Right now he is concentrating on his legislative responsibilities. "In four weeks, I'll be very full-time on the campaign," he warns his opponents.
He has, however, made several Neighbor Island visits and found voters to be receptive to his message of fiscal moderation.
Trips to the Big Island have been "fruitful," he says.
• Harris has put his campaign on hold, pending a ruling by the state Supreme Court on the resign-to-run law. Meanwhile, he is battling on two other fronts.
Mayor Jeremy Harris
The Campaign Spending Commission continues its probe of corporations that contributed too generously to Harris and other Democratic office-holders. To date, about a dozen corporations or officers have been fined around $110,000.
Also, the commission has forwarded possible criminal improprieties it uncovered to the city prosecutor and federal authorities.
The political perils Harris chances at coming commission meetings pale against the problems he faces before the City Council budget committee. Chairwoman Ann Kobayashi says that if the city were a company it would be bankrupt.
Despite the legal hurdles he faces, Harris is probably the most thorough and hardest-working campaigner in the history of the city and county. He is well financed and has a dedicated inner circle at Honolulu Hale. If he remains as mayor through July 23, he'll be tough to beat on O'ahu.
The Neighbor Islands are another matter.
Republican Primary
John Carroll is embroiled in an in-house spat with the GOP leadership over a mailing list: "(The Party is) acting like a totalitarian dictatorship," he says. No votes are won in this kind of contest, only lost.
Lingle has just returned from fund raising on the Mainland and is keeping a rather low public profile at home.
• Carroll, a self-described conservative, faces an up-mountain (not hill) battle for the GOP nomination. But the Big Island rancher and former GOP state chairman is a fighter. A publicly outspoken opponent of the merger of Aloha and Hawaiian airlines, the former Hawaiian pilot was on the winning side of that debate. He draws support from military retirees and older hard-line conservatives. He must expand his small base by telling voters in what important ways he is a better choice than Lingle to carry the banner.
John Carroll
• Front-runner Lingle has benefitted from the travails of Harris. But so have Anderson and Case. Since moving from her executive position with the state GOP, she has been fund raising on the Mainland. She intends to raise and spend $5 million to $6 million in her bid for governor. That is an enormous amount for the governorship of a small state.
Linda Lingle
Unflappable Bob Awana is again her campaign manager. He says the Lingle campaign is on track, fund raising is going well, and the grassroots organization continues to build strength: "The campaign is in a better position and further ahead than the 1998 campaign."
OK, but a front-runner needs to generate excitement and give something to supporters to cheer about.
The GOP has not yet found anyone to challenge Congressman Neil Abercrombie. If no one surfaces, the minority party has revealed a major weakness. (What about Pat Saiki?) Congresswoman Patsy Mink probably will be opposed by state rep. Bob McDermott, who has no challenger yet in the Republican primary.
With a possible shift by a couple of house Democrats to the GOP, chances of Republicans taking control of the state house of representatives brighten significantly.
One of them, rep. Lei Ahu Isa, who has been "frustrated" and "disappointed" by Gov. Ben Cayetano, says facetiously, "I want to make the governor happy, so I may switch parties." She has confided to other Democrats that Cayetano is "killing the Democratic Party."
