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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, August 2, 2002

EDITORIAL
War on Iraq? Senate is right to open debate

Many Americans think George H.W. Bush's failure to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein from power at the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War was a serious sin of omission.

The American charter from its allies to conduct that war specified the liberation of Kuwait, and not a potentially costly attack on Baghdad. Ironically, the top American soldier at the time, now Secretary of State Colin Powell, had opposed the entire war.

The current Bush administration, often accused of unilateralism, has a very different attitude toward the wishes of its allies. Yet even this president clearly is making a serious effort to line up support for what appears to be the coming war.

But leaked reports of competing military plans suggest deep divisions even within this outspoken administration. And no wonder; the stakes are huge.

Consider, for instance, the effect on the world oil market of a war on Iraq. New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman suggests that, depending on which way the war goes, oil could either drop from its present price in the mid-$20s a barrel to near $6 (if a defeated Iraq's new regime is permitted to raise its oil production from 2 million barrels a day under the U.N. oil-for-food program to its 5 million potential) or skyrocket to near $60 (if Saddam decides to fire missiles with chemical or biological weapons at Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields).

The destabilizing effect globally of either scenario clearly must be considered before embarking on what up to now has largely been a "feel good" proposition — that is, grabbing a measure of revenge for the outrage of Sept. 11, even if Iraq had no connection with it.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is right to want to know about threats, costs, options and what happens (see Trudy Rubin's adjoining column) when Saddam is gone.

To act or not to act? It's vital to open a vigorous debate. "Ignoring these factors," Joseph Biden and Richard Lugar, the ranking senators on the Foreign Relations Committee, wisely warn, "could lead us into something for which the American public is wholly unprepared."