Posted on: Thursday, August 8, 2002

EDITORIAL
Bush must urge caution on China and Taiwan

Even though a number of factors argue against it, we can never discount entirely the possibility of a disastrous war between China and Taiwan, which most likely would involve the United States.

The chance for miscalculation by either side is high. The Communist regime has insisted for so long that Taiwan will be restored to Chinese rule that the regime might forfeit its legitimacy if it settled for anything less. The ruling party in Taiwan, meanwhile, depends for its ascendency upon a constituency that is uncompromisingly pro-independence.

Sparking the most recent flap were comments last week by Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian that suggested he might be calling for a referendum on the question of independence. That would violate his pledge on taking office not to advocate such a referendum.

In fact Chen, speaking in Taiwanese rather than Mandarin Chinese for a deliberate lack of clarity, didn't call for a referendum but merely asserted the nation's right to have such a referendum, which he'd said before. Media reports failed to note that subtlety, and got Chen in hot water. He clearly was trying to have it both ways — to assure pro-independence voters, with a wink and a nod, without angering Beijing.

Chen's spokesmen insist the flap is over nothing; that he said nothing he hadn't said before. Chen, nevertheless, knew his statement was provocative. He hoped to influence upcoming Taiwanese elections at a time that Beijing's leaders would be too preoccupied with discussions about their own succession problems to take notice.

To be sure, the forces shoring up the profitable status quo are still stronger than the hawks. Mainland investment by Taiwanese businesses is growing steadily, and neither side has anything to gain by disrupting this lucrative commerce.

But President Jiang Zemin had said he hoped to preside over the recovery of Taiwan; that personal goal may be one reason behind his recent attempts to cling to power when all expectations had him retiring soon.

It's the possibility of Chen or Jiang getting carried away by domestic political concerns that seems most dangerous at the moment to cross-Strait relations. Washington must be a constant voice for restraint on both sides, and point out to Beijing the oxymoronic nature of its most recent threat that "peace would have to be safeguarded and won through the use of force."