Retail analysts cautiously optimistic for season
| • | Local shops feeling merry |
By Anne D'Innocenzio
Associated Press
NEW YORK — A rosy sales report from J.C. Penney Co. Inc. and another from America Online yesterday were among additional encouraging signs the holiday season got off to a solid start over the Thanksgiving weekend.
Still, analysts are cautious about how the rest of the holiday shopping season will fare.
Merchants have seen erratic spending behavior all year, with consumers pulling back for a few months and then launching buying sprees. And the weekend's success was not universal, with discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., expected to achieve the best results, while some analysts said business was uneven at department stores and apparel chains.
"The strong start is very encouraging, but by no means is it reason to celebrate at this point," said Michael P. Niemira, vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. "Those that benefited more were the ones that promoted."
Todd Slater, an analyst at Lazard Freres & Co., said that in the department store sector, he did not think "there are a lot of people doing victory laps."
In the three-day weekend after Thanksgiving, total U.S. retail sales rose 12.4 percent over the same period a year ago, according to ShopperTrak RCT. The three-day weekend totaled $15.9 billion in sales, compared with $14.2 billion spent in 2001.
ShopperTrak RCT uses data from the U.S. Commerce Department and point-of-sale data from more than 22,000 retail outlets. It released updated data yesterday.
Texas-based Penney said yesterday that weekend sales were at record levels. Apparel and fine jewelry did well, the company said.
Penney also said it expected sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, to increase in the low single digits for December. The figure is considered the best measure of a retailer's health.
Wal-Mart said Saturday it set a record for one-day sales on Friday, $1.43 billion. Last year, Wal-Mart reported sales of $1.25 billion the day after Thanksgiving. Salter estimated Wal-Mart's same-store sales were up 7 to 8 percent on Friday.
Sales at 58 of the nation's regional malls increased 7.6 percent from Friday through Sunday, according to data released late yesterday by the International Council of Shopping Centers. The results don't include sales at department stores and other mall anchors.
Meanwhile, online sales turned out to be robust. America Online said its members spent approximately $1.09 billion in the seven days ended Sunday, a 26 percent increase over the year-ago period. AOL estimates 4 million members shopped online last week, spending an average of $269.
A report from Goldman Sachs & Co., Harris Interactive and Nielsen/ NetRatings, found 32 percent more consumers shopped online Friday compared to the comparable day in 2001. It said spending per person grew to nearly $88 during the week ended Nov. 22, or 8 percent over the same period a year ago.
