Face facts: St. Louis will prevail, 28-20

By Wes Nakama
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hey, I'm like everyone else who is not cheering for St. Louis tonight: I'd honestly feel good about seeing underdog Castle complete its fairy tale season by pulling off the mother of all high school football upsets.

Castle hasn't faced a receiver like Jason Rivers, who can run 100 meters in 11.05 seconds. Eugene Tanner • The Honolulu Advertiser

And besides, who wouldn't want a happy ending for Knights coach Nelson Maeda, who has been through some rough times the past couple years yet still brought out the best in his teams?

Without a doubt, Castle is the overwhelming sentimental favorite.

But as far as the true favorite, well, that undisputedly has to be St. Louis.

Let's just look at some facts:

The Crusaders' offensive line (right tackle Frank Fernandez, right guard Bronson Carvalho, center Quinn DeSilva, left guard Makana Mardonada and left tackle Jeremy Inferrera) averages 6 feet 1, 268 pounds. The Knights' defensive front (ends Soli Lefiti and Antone Watanabe, tackles Travis Paaga and Mana Sasaki) averages out to 6-0, 211.

That's an awful lot of beef to be giving away.

Yes, Castle also was at a huge size disadvantage against Kailua, McKinley and Farrington, yet went 5-1 against those teams. But St. Louis' blockers traditionally are quicker and have more refined technique than most high school linemen. For example, just look at the Chicago Bears' Pro Bowl center, Olin Kreutz, or Detroit Lions center Dominic Raiola — both of them former Crusaders.

NAKAMA

Another fact: Castle has never faced a receiving duo like Jason Rivers/Shane Butcher nor a running tandem like B.J. Batts/Justin Cabansag.

Kailua receivers David Kaihenui and Keali'i Kalahiki were formidable, but they didn't quite have Rivers' speed (100 meters in 11.05 seconds) or athleticism. And if Butcher could catch five passes for 135 yards and one touchdown against the nation's No. 1-ranked team, De La Salle of Concord, Calif., that pretty much shows what he's capable of against any defensive backfield.

Plus, Rivers and Butcher have a quarterback, Bobby George, who can deliver the ball right on the numbers from 40-50 yards away.

As for Cabansag and Batts, their inside-outside threat is similar to the one posed by Kahuku's Earvin Atuaia and Mulivai Pula last year. You know, pick your poison.

Defensively, St. Louis looks like its same old intimidating self. The front four (tackles Keahi Coleman and Fale Laeli, ends Wilson Afoa and Tavita Thompson) averages 6-2 1/2, 251 pounds. Linebackers Dylan Moss (5-11, 220) and Tualau Fale (6-1, 230) are physical and agile. Outside linebacker/strong safety Timo Paepule (6-0, 210) is another outstanding athlete who can help against the run or drop into pass coverage.

The secondary, led by all-state corner Jonah Lakatani, already has faced some of the best receivers around in Kamehameha's Keoni Ruth and Josh Vierra and De La Salle's Cameron Colvin and Damon Jenkins.

Which brings us to the bottom line of why the Saints might prove to be simply too strong for the Knights: competition.

As entertaining as the O'ahu Interscholastic Association playoffs were, the showdowns between St. Louis and Kamehameha/De La Salle clearly were played at a different level.

I've covered top-notch high school football in Florida and California, and the Crusaders' caliber is as good as it gets.

Castle is a well-conditioned, athletic team with good speed, intelligent schemes on offense and defense, and a lot of hustle and heart. Unfortunately, that is not always enough to win a state championship.

Tonight's game probably will be closer than most people expect, and I admire your public school pride in choosing the Knights to come out on top tonight, Stace.

Yeah, my heart wants to go with Castle, too.

But my brain says the Knights won't have enough to keep the Saints from marching back to glory.

Prediction: St. Louis 28, Castle 20.