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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, December 15, 2002

How would you invest $25,000 in today's market?

Advertiser Staff

STARTING WITH $25,000 ON SEPT. 12

We asked the financial professionals listed below what they would recommend to a theoretical investor who inherits $25,000 and wants to put it into stocks, mutual funds or bonds to increase the value over three months.

They selected five investments of $5,000 each on Sept. 12. The chart shows the value of those investments, as of the close of the market on Friday. They were allowed to make changes once per month since Sept. 12. These rules put limits on the professionals that would not normally apply, and their performance must be viewed with that in mind.

Investing over a short period is risky, and this is not intended to suggest these investments are appropriate for any individual.

The participants were asked to give a comment on their picks and what they would do differently if the investments were for the long term. The date the comments were submitted is included in the chart.

Before investing in any security, it's important to evaluate your current financial situation and your long-term goals. Your tolerance for risk, for example, may be low, indicating a need for safe investments. In many cases, reducing credit-card debt or other debt would be a better use of any windfall.

The selections are those of the money managers listed and not The Honolulu Advertiser. The results do not include commission charges.

If you have any questions or comments, please contact: David Butts, assistant business editor, 535-2453 or dbutts@honoluluadvertiser.com.

• • •

Roberta Lee-Driscoll
Certified financial planner
1000 Bishop St., Suite 509
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-6823
Explaining the picks

I would like to thank The Honolulu Advertiser and my colleagues for the privilege of playing the investment portfolio game. It was interesting to see how different portfolio managers make investment choices. Knowing more about investments and portfolio strategies helps consumers make wiser choices or seek registered investment professionals when they cannot help themselves. (Dec. 9)

Long-term strategy

For short term investments or when you do not want to lose any money use bank insured FDIC accounts.For long term investments you should invest in the stock and bond market to hedge against your greatest risk . . . inflation. Do not forget to diversify your portfolio. Invest wisely toward a happy retirement. (Dec. 9)

Alan Matsuda
Certified financial planner
606 Eaea Place
Honolulu, HI 96825
395-1255
Explaining the picks

I figured my investor wanted to take some risk and didn't want investments he could do himself -- CDs, Treasury bills, for example -- and asked me to identify which investments weren't sinking along with the entire stock market. If he wanted very little risk, I would have picked an ultra-short bond fund (Fidelity, PIMCO). (Dec. 6)

Long-term strategy

Raw, quantitative performance shouldn't be your only criterion in picking a financial adviser. Pick one who returns your phone calls promptly, one who has earned a professional designation and isn't, in reality, a salesperson striving to maximize his/her employer's profits at your expense. (Dec. 6)

Jim Rogers
Brookstreet Securities Corp.
419 South St., No. 121
Honolulu, HI 96813
524-8696
Explaining the picks

Uncertainty and fear hurt my picks again this week. The prolonged saga over the Iraqi situation and other political factors weighed heavily upon the markets. Friday's release of the producer price index and consumer sentiment failed to provide support. The best managed portfolio is still at the mercy of market action. (Dec. 13)

Long-term strategy

My long-term view for investors with a 10-year-plus horizon is bullish for equities and bearish for bonds. I believe that bond prices will decline as interest rates rise from historic lows. Equities should begin to regain strength and rise from the three year decline. It's turbulent, be careful. (Dec. 13)

Bob L. Slate
Slate Financial Services
45-315 Lilipuna Road, A303
Kane'ohe, HI 96744
263-7676
Explaining the picks

Equities hit a technical double top. I would be getting defensive as the market takes a breather before it tries to take out and hold that 9000 DJIA mark. Technology led a quick rise, but I'd rather wait for technology than jump on the bandwagon. Market sentiment looks good for the most part. Let's see if buyers come in and show support at lower levels. (Dec. 6)

Long-term strategy

There is more than $6 trillion in cash equivalents. The rate cuts by the Fed will probably start to shove investors back into the market in 2003 as dwindling safe havens start to mature. The market seems like it wants to go higher next year. The economy still has much work before I get bullish. Good investment management will be a key factor to investment success. (Dec. 6)

Colin K. Watanabe
Branch manager
National Securities Corp.
1001 Bishop St.
Pacific Tower 1530
Honolulu, HI 96813
(808) 522-9000
Explaining the picks

CSCO: is expanding its internet security business. COST: despite reporting a 12 percent rise in quarterly earnings on average margins of 10.67 percent, several analysts downgraded the shares on fears that sales growth may slow. GE: announced its 27th consecutive year of dividend growth. Proposed tax reform that would eliminate double taxation of dividends would be a definite boost. (Dec. 13)

Long-term strategy

The past two weeks of declines are consistent with a retracement; necessary in forming a market “bottom.” Financial markets are worried about Iraq, and now Korea; with gold prices spiking to a six-year high. Still, low inflation and interest rates provide a positive environment for economic growth. I remain optimistic. (Dec. 15)

Mario Yim
Raymond James
1221 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 6E
Honolulu, HI 96814
591-9088
Explaining the picks

As we had forecast, the market is beginning to pull back as the realization of the reduced "real" earnings potential of the overall market is coming to light. Our selection of stocks, particularly those that pay high dividends such as Washington Mutual and Hawaiian Electric, should hold up well in this downturn. (Dec. 13)

Long-term strategy

For active traders, the next few months will present opportunities to buy into this market as an overall decline is in order. We continue to believe that the overall market is overvalued and caution is advised for the upcoming year. Our national firm's research has a stock list that has averaged 47.4 percent each year over the past 5 years as of Dec. 6. (Dec. 13)