DBEDT predicts gradual recovery
By John Duchemin
Advertiser Staff Writer
Despite reduced expectations for tourism, state economic forecasters continue to predict slow economic recovery in 2003.
The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism expects jobs, incomes, gross state product and visitor arrivals to increase slightly next year as the economy lifts out of a post-Sept. 11 downturn.
The forecasts are similar to recent predictions by economists at the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization and First Hawaiian Bank.
"The economy is continuing a gradual recovery from the impacts of 9/11 and weak economic performance for the U.S. and Japan," said Pearl Imada Iboshi, head of economic research for DBEDT. "While there is uncertainty clouding the outlook over the next year or so, we expect the state's economy to continue to gain momentum."
DBEDT has predicted a bounce-back in 2003 ever since the economy slumped due to a sharp decline in visitors and thousands of tourism-related layoffs in late 2001.
The latest forecast contains only minor changes, with visitor counts expected to rise less than earlier predicted, and inflation expected to increase at a faster rate.
DBEDT cautions that its 2003 forecasts assume an "absence of economic or travel disruptions" including a possible war with Iraq or terrorist acts.
