By David Shapiro

The Jan. 4 special election to replace the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink is the beginning of a long shakeout for Hawai'i Democrats still in shock from their loss of the governorship in November.

Two trends already are clear as Democrats rebuild:

• The party is looking more to its future than its past as it digs out. Seven "name" Democrats competed for support in the 2nd Congressional District and the three who survived, Ed Case, Matt Matsunaga and Colleen Hanabusa, are relatively fresh faces to statewide politics.

Old warhorses such as former Gov. John Waihee and former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, so much a part of past Democratic glory, fell by the wayside as Democrats eschewed sentimentality in seeking a winning strategy.

• Labor unions are moving forcefully to reshape the Democratic Party in their image. The unions took charge of thinning the special election field for fear that too many Democrats splitting the vote could hand victory to a Republican.

And it was the unions that pushed aside old friends like Waihee, Hirono, Mufi Hannemann and Clayton Hee to anoint Matsunaga the new-age standard bearer for the old Democratic coalition.

The election will test whether that old labor coalition can hold off the more independent wing of the party represented by the reform-minded Case and Hanabusa.

The outcome will start to shape the Democratic pecking order for major races yet to come this decade — Honolulu mayor in 2004, the rematch for governor in 2006 and possibly two U.S. Senate races when Hawai'i's septuagenarian senators step aside.

The congressional race is for the Democrats to lose. The best Republican chance is to unite behind one candidate against a divided Democratic vote, but the GOP is even more splintered in the 44-candidate field with seven Republican candidates who have held elected office.

They include former state Rep. Bob McDermott, who pulled 71,000 votes against the deceased Mink in November; Rep. Barbara Marumoto, who has the support of many prominent Republicans; and former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

Democratic voters showed themselves ready for new direction in a poll on the congressional race conducted by the party in November.

Case, who narrowly lost the Democratic nomination for governor to Hirono, had a commanding lead for Mink's seat with an approval rating of 70 percent. He easily won the Nov. 30 special election to fill the last month of Mink's current term.

Hirono and Matsunaga, running mates on the defeated Democratic ticket for governor, ran a distant second to Case in the congressional poll. Waihee, whose run as governor was tarnished by a sour economy and procurement scandals, polled weakly with a disapproval rating of 52 percent.

With Hirono and Waihee forced out of the race and the unions betting on Matsunaga to fend off Case, it will come down to voter turnout — only 13 percent in the first special election.

If a cross-section of voters turns out, you have to like the chances of the popular Case. Matsunaga needs a disproportionately high turnout of union members who buy into the labor endorsements. The only Republican prayer is for a strong GOP vote united behind one candidate.

Hanabusa, a smart and outspoken state senator who projects an appealing voice for her party's future, is courting Mink admirers by pitching herself as the one candidate who can fill the liberal Mink's shoes as well as her seat.

This may not prove to be Hanabusa's time, but she can afford to take a loss to build visibility for the future.

David Shapiro can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.