Business travel to remain flat in '03

Advertiser News Services

Leisure travel is expected to remain relatively stable in the new year, but growth in business travel — which can account for as much as 70 percent of carriers' revenue — is expected to continue to struggle, according to recent reports.

Among highlights of forecasted trends for 2003:

Leisure travel

• About 71 percent of Americans say they will travel as much or more in 2003 than they did this year amid expectations for a slightly stronger economy, according to a December survey of 1,010 U.S. adults commissioned by AAA.

• About 52 percent said they would travel the same in 2003 as they did this year if the United States goes to war with Iraq. Seventeen percent would travel "somewhat less" if the United States goes to war with Iraq and

23 percent expected to travel "a lot less." Only 4 percent would travel more while another 4 percent weren't sure.

• Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they would spend as much or more on their longest vacation next year as they did this year, 7 percent would spend "somewhat less" and 7 percent planned to spend "a lot less." Another 8 percent weren't sure.

• Car travel continued be the most popular choice for travel, as 47 percent of Americans will take their longest vacation in 2003 by motor vehicle and another 11 percent will combine flying and driving, AAA said. One-quarter of respondents said they would travel by airplane and 6 percent expect to take a cruise.

Business travel

• About 50 percent of corporate travel managers expect air travel spending to remain flat in 2003. Sixty-three percent said they don't expect their travel spending to hit 2000 levels until 2004, according to a survey by Merrill Lynch and the National Business Travel Association.

• More than a third of companies that responded to the survey said they cut air travel budgets by more than 10 percent this year.

• Fifty-seven percent of the travel managers surveyed also indicated that they expect their air travel contracts to increase as much as 10 percent next year. To offset that increase, 66 percent say they would use discount airlines such as Southwest Airlines, AirTran and JetBlue more frequently.