Low turnout expected in election for Congress

By James Gonser
Advertiser Staff Writer

An exceedingly long and difficult political season in the 2nd Congressional District will finally draw to a close with Saturday's special election to replace the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink.

After enduring months of sign-waving, TV commercials and political mailings that began with campaigning for the Sept. 21 primary, voters in rural O'ahu and on the Neighbor Islands are being asked to go back to the polls one more time to choose a representative in Congress. This will be the fourth time they will pick a candidate this election cycle.

Political observers and candidates are predicting low voter turnout.

"... I can't say much is very clear," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner. "I don't see any voters. There is no telling who is going to show up to vote."

Nonetheless, a lot is at stake in this election.

"For the Republicans this is an opportunity that they didn't think they were going to have," Milner said. "As optimistic as (Gov. Linda) Lingle has been over the past eight years about building the party, nobody expected them to have a serious shot at a 2002 congressional seat. For the Democrats, I think it is important for them to hold on to this seat. This is a chance for the younger candidates to reshape the party that has become more stagnant and so limited in their ideas."

Economic development, Native Hawaiian sovereignty and homeland security are among the most important issues to voters in the district, home to 604,891 Hawai'i residents. The district is nearly 30 percent white, 12.4 percent Filipino, 11.3 percent Japanese and 9.6 percent Native Hawaiian, according to state figures. Of registered voters, 63 percent are between 30 and 64 years old.

The Neighbor Islands have long been a strong base for the Democratic party, but the Republicans are changing that. In the general election, Lingle took a majority of votes on every island except Kaua'i.

"Neighbor Islands clearly are changing dramatically," said former Democratic state legislator Jim Shon. "They are not a place where the Democratic party can count on a margin that will offset O'ahu. The state is changing."

Hawai'i Chief Elections Officer Dwayne Yoshina said he has no idea what the turnout might be, but only 3,292 people had voted by walk-in absentee ballot by Dec. 24, less than 1 percent of registered voters.

"Given the usual distractions around the holidays, penetrating the voters' consciousness is not going to be the easiest thing," said Shon, a veteran observer of state politics. "People are pretty well burned out on political stuff."

Mink, who had served Hawai'i in the U.S. House for 24 years, died of viral pneumonia Sept. 28, two days too late to have her name removed from the general election ballot. Voters elected her posthumously on Nov. 5, triggering the Jan. 4 special election.

A special election on Nov. 30 was held to fill the last five weeks of the term Mink was serving when she died. But it was an election that many called unnecessary, particularly because the House of Representatives wouldn't be in session during that short time.

Democrat Ed Case won that Nov. 30 election and is a candidate on Saturday along with 43 others.

State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former state Sen. Matt Matsunaga are the other top Democrats in the race. Top Republicans include former state Rep. John Carroll, current state Rep. Barbara Marumoto and former state Rep. Bob McDermott.

Other candidates include former state Sen. Whitney Anderson, former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, legislative policy consultant Kimo Kaloi and former state Rep. Jim Rath.

Only 13.3 percent of the 347,922 eligible voters made it to the polls Nov. 30. Case drew 23,576 votes compared with 16,624 for Mink's husband, John, who was considered the sentimental favorite.

Yoshina said the first special election cost taxpayers about $700,000, at least $500,000 less than expected. The number of polling places was reduced from 192 to 91, which saved the state about $2,000 per site because fewer people were needed to staff the precincts. The same number of polling places will be operating Saturday.

With so many candidates, organizing a major debate before Saturday was nearly impossible.

"This situation calls for some kind of debate or forum, but you cannot include 44 people and have anything worth considering," said Jean Aoki, legislative chairwoman for the League of Women Voters. It is a situation, Aoki said, that unfortunately limits the public's understanding of the candidates and where they stand on the issues.

"We decided we would not go with any debates. There are too many people. How do we leave some out and still be fair? We hope someone will come up with some bright idea, but they are all afraid, I think, of that terrific obstacle. It's daunting. You will be criticized no matter what you do," Aoki said.

Some people have been critical of Hanabusa, who videotaped a series of informational programs on 'Olelo to get her message out and invited Case to debate. Hanabusa said people have criticized her for not including more candidates.

Neighbor Island public television stations have taped talks with candidates and Kaloi and McDermott discussed Pacific island issues on an hour-long 'Olelo program taped Friday. That program has not yet aired.

"It would have been good to have a televised debate live with not only the three main Democratic candidates, but two or three of the main Republicans opponents as well," Matsunaga said.

Candidates who can afford to are reaching out by running TV ads.

McDermott, who has run out of campaign money and is in debt, recorded a TV commercial, but cannot afford to pay for air time.

"I'm just doing old-fashioned campaigning right now. Sign waving, trying to stay visible," McDermott said. "But it is too much already. A whole year of campaigning and people are just tired of it and want to move on."

Hanabusa said some voters are still upset with the fact that there were two special elections. "Most people just can't seem to get excited about this election," Hanabusa said. "That is why I think it is anyone's election. It is going to be whoever can get their people out to vote."

Hanabusa said voters should get out Saturday because this is a critical time for Hawai'i. Our economy is dependent on tourism and military spending, she said, and federal policy, which is decided in Congress, can make or break the state.

Neither the Democrat nor Republican party will endorse a candidate in this election, but Marumoto has drawn on other Republicans to endorse her through her television ads. Even though Lingle was not one of them, Marumoto said a Republican has a good shot at winning.

"There is little resistance to a Republican being elected," Marumoto said. "Lingle proved that in spades. I think I have as good a chance as a person from any other party."