Harris, Lingle equal as governor's race starts
| • | Graphic: Poll results |
By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief
As they head into the race for governor, Republican Party Chairwoman Linda Lingle and Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris are equally well known among registered voters statewide, but more people have a favorable view of Lingle than of Harris, according to a Honolulu Advertiser/News 8 Hawai'i Poll.
More than half of people who said they knew of Lingle, 53.3 percent, said they have a favorable opinion of her, while less than half, 45.3 percent, said they have a favorable opinion of Harris. Considering the poll's margin of error, it is possible that Lingle and Harris enjoy similar favorable ratings.
In the race for Honolulu mayor, more than 90 percent of the registered O'ahu voters said they knew of Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, former City Councilman Mufi Hannemann, and former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, but the voters had a much less favorable view of Fasi than the other candidates.
Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu conducted the poll Feb. 5-10 in a random statewide telephone survey of 364 registered voters. The poll's margin of error is 5.1 percentage points, meaning that in a survey of all Hawai'i registered voters, the percentages for each candidate could be 5.1 percentage points high or lower.
One of the most significant findings of the Hawai'i Poll is that Lingle has succeeded in the difficult task of staying in the public eye in the four years she has been out of office. A former Maui mayor, Lingle narrowly lost to Gov. Ben Cayetano in the 1998 election. She has effectively used the previously ceremonial position as chairwoman of the Republican Party to maintain her profile and remain a force in state politics.
The poll also makes clear that Lingle this year enjoys near-universal name recognition, an advantage she did not have in the earliest stages of the 1998 campaign.
Lingle said she started the campaign four years ago with name recognition of only about 40 percent. "I feel good about it, because I haven't really started to campaign yet," Lingle said. "It's starting at a much better point, and the importance of the name recognition is once people know you and have a feel for you, then they'll listen to your positions on things."
Rick Tsujimura, chairman of the Harris 2002 campaign, said "the numbers show that Harris continues to have strong support" despite a highly publicized investigation by the state Campaign Spending Commission into donations made to Harris' 2000 mayoral campaign.
"We're confident support will continue to increase, and will likely surge once the campaign is cleared of the suspicions created by (Commission Executive Director Robert) Watada's attacks," Tsujimura said.
The Hawai'i Poll found that Lingle's most favorable ratings come from Caucasians and Hawaiians or part-Hawaiians, with more than half of the likely voters of those ethnic groups saying they have a favorable opinion of her.
More than half of Caucasians and Filipinos said they looked favorably upon Harris.
Among voters of Japanese ancestry, which traditionally has been a critical group in Hawai'i politics, 49 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Lingle, while 39 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Harris.
Basic name recognition can be critical in the early stages of a campaign, especially if a candidate is running against a better-known incumbent, said Helen Varner, dean of the communication division of Hawai'i Pacific University and a former political consultant and owner of an advertising agency.
"Movie stars get elected," Varner said. As for Lingle "she has very high name recognition. I would say she's halfway there."
Voters mark the names they know, which means Harris's job as mayor tends to give him an advantage.
Varner said it is "amazing" that Lingle would have name recognition equal to that of Harris, 96.7 percent, considering Harris has been in the public eye for longer and held higher profile jobs.
Name recognition is especially important in a statewide race because candidates must first make themselves familiar with voters before they can explain their positions to the voters. Varner called those "two huge jobs."
"Incumbents need to raise less money because they already have established name recognition and a record," Varner said. "People running for office for the first time or trying to unseat an incumbent probably should raise twice as much (money), and that's almost impossible.
In the mayor's race, Hirono enjoyed an approval rating of 46.5 percent among those polled, statistically equal to that of City Councilman Duke Bainum. Hannemann's approval rating of 44.4 percent was also within the 6 percent margin of error in the mayoral portion of the poll of 270 registered O'ahu voters. Former City Prosecutor Keith Kaneshiro trailed slightly.
Fasi had the lowest approval ratings, with almost half the voters saying they have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Fasi said he has not spent any money yet to get his message out, and said voters have been very responsive when he discusses "the facts" of city government today.
"It will take a little while, but I feel very upbeat," Fasi said. "I feel very optimistic. We'll get the message across by September. I'm going to be re-elected mayor."
Reach Kevin Dayton at kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
