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U.S. policy on North Korea: Now what?
By Ralph A. Cossa
Has President Bush's decision to include North Korea in his "axis of evil" foreclosed the possibility of serious dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang? Not necessarily.
Associated Press
True, North Korea felt compelled to respond in kind, branding the United States the "empire of (the) devil." And, even before Bush's incendiary remarks, the prospects for dialogue were pretty slim.
A North Korean soldier at a border checkpoint looks at the South Korean side through a telescope. President Bush will visit a newly built railway station close to the border with North Korea during his visit this week in a show of support for reconciliation between the two Koreas.
Nonetheless, Secretary of State Colin Powell maintains that Washington's earlier offer to negotiate still stands, and North Korea's amabassador to the United Nations has now said that his nation is also receptive to dialogue with the United States "on an equal basis and without preconditions," if only the United States would quit being so hostile. "A nice word will be answered with a nice word," maintains Ambassador Pak Gil-yon. Perhaps Bush's State of the Union speech branding has finally convinced
Pyongyang that Washington is not going to beg or bribe it to come to the table, that the ball is really in North Korea's court.
This is in no way intended to put a positive spin on Bush's "axis" formulation. It was inaccurate, inappropriate, and potentially quite damaging, not because it upsets the North Koreans — they were already calling the United States much worse — but because it greatly and unnecessarily complicates U.S. relations with South Korea and helps to reinforce the "arrogance without excellence" image that the administration seems intent on fostering.
The question now is how to reduce the damage. From Seoul's perspective, the timing could not have been worse, coming just before Bush's first visit. South Korea had hoped (reportedly even pleaded) that the Bush visit would focus on the positive: support for the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance, for the North-South engagement process, and for the U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework (which froze the North's suspected nuclear weapons program in return for light-water nuclear reactors, currently under construction).
Associated Press
While this still may (and should) occur, press questions and headlines will undoubtedly now focus not on Washington's overall Korea policy but on the "axis" accusation and Bush's personal views regarding the North's leadership.
A North Korean soldier stands guard in the border village of Panmunjom.
Many South Koreans are equally skeptical about dealing with the North. Some have openly argued that Bush's "hardline" policy is necessary to save them from themselves; i.e., to counterbalance South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's overly generous Sunshine Policy. But they all prefer a more subtle approach, one that takes South Korean concerns into account and does not increase the risk of conflict on the peninsula. Even the most vocal critics of the Sunshine Policy are not against engagement per se; they just want some reciprocity (and a bit of respect and appreciation from Pyongyang).
Bush's impending trip to Seoul will present a great challenge to his diplomatic leadership skills. It would be unrealistic to expect him to recant his "axis of evil" comment. But he must steer the focus away from his personal disdain for the North's leadership and ideology toward the larger issue of U.S. foreign policy on the peninsula. U.S. national interests demand this.
While in Seoul, Bush must personally stress that his administration remains prepared to negotiate with Pyongyang "any time, any place, without preconditions," not because he suddenly trusts Pyong-
yang but because this serves the interest of peace. Merely having Powell convey this message no longer works. In fact, it sends a signal of conflicting views within the administration on the subject of negotiating with the North. Powell could follow up, however, by noting that Ambassador Pak's comment is a step in the right direction.
Advertiser library photo • Jan. 19, 2002
Rumors are rampant in Seoul (and in Washington) that Bush's comment was aimed at pre-empting a North-South deal, out of concern that the South Korean leader was too eager to cut a deal that might threaten U.S. interests. This is highly insulting to South Korea, which has considerably more at stake in this game than Washington does. Bush needs to dispel these rumors by once again voicing his strong support for North-South dialogue and his confidence in the South's Kim to carry this out in the waning months of his administration.
Giving his State of the Union speech, President Bush described North Korea as part of an "axis of evil."
Bush also needs to reaffirm U.S. support for the Agreed Framework. It would not hurt to point out that, thus far, North Korea has in fact lived up to the letter of the agreement.
North Korea is not required to come into full compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency until a significant portion of the light-water reactor project has been completed, and we are several years away from that point. However, it is also true that the agency process is a lengthy one. To demand that North Korea come into compliance today is unilaterally raising the bar. To point out that a failure to start the agency process today will only guarantee further delays down the road is appropriate, however.
It is also prudent to express concern over North Korea's suspected chemical and biological warfare programs and its refusal to sign international protocols regarding chem-bio development or nuclear testing. Washington's words would go down much easier, however, if it were to set a better example on these issues itself.
Bush, as commander in chief, has a responsibility in wartime to keep the nation focused on the threats that lie ahead. But the president also is America's No. 1 diplomat, responsible for informing the public not only of the challenges but also the nuances. It remains to be seen if Bush will live up to this aspect of the job when he visits Seoul this week.
Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based nonprofit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and is senior editor of Comparative Connections, a quarterly online journal at csis.org/pacfor.
