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Rice offers insights on U.S. policy in Asia
By Tom Plate
It's nice to see a prominent West Coast American at such a high foreign-policy level in Washington.
Advertiser library photo • Oct. 15, 2001
That's the case with Condoleezza Rice, the former provost of Stanford University. Now, more than one year into the new administration, Bush's national security adviser is anything but just another assembly-line Eastern Establishment insider who'd relegate China and the rest of Asia to a back seat behind Russia and Europe.
National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice emphasizes the importance of Asia in foreign policy.
On the eve of President Bush's timely visit to Asia this weekend, Rice thus offered on-the-record insights into high-level U.S. thinking.
First stop: Tokyo
Bush officials came into office high on making Japan the Asian counterpart to Britain, but as the reality of Japan's economic problems and political gridlock sank in, they toned down the happy talk.
Even so, the administration believes Japan's economic impasse has unfortunately overshadowed its impressive contribution to the anti-terror war.
Advertiser library photo • Feb. 4, 2002
"This is an underwritten story," sighed Rice. "Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told the president very early on that Japan would try to be significant — that it would expand the boundaries of what it would be able to do. The result has been positive implications for security in the region."
Japan Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's popularity has shrunk recently.
But is the Japanese contribution of transport and rescue ships at the rear of the action really such a big deal? Yes, she responded. "Remember: the Japanese Defense Forces are the one force among our allies that was always modernizing."
Rice doubts any other Japanese politician besides Koizumi would have so extended himself politically for the U.S. cause.
Although the telegenic prime minister's popularity has shrunk from about 70 percent to 50 percent, he still gets Rice's vote. But can Koizumi lift Japan out of the recessionary soup?
"Consider the way Koizumi came to power, the great extent to which he really does understand the economic and political challenges, and his ability to mobilize the country," she responded, "we should hope for the best." How can Bush help? "The president wants Japan to be a strong partner economically, and he will talk with Koizumi about the joint responsibility of the No. 1 and No. 2 economies in the world. And the president plans to give strong support for reform — a very strong public affirmation of Japan's need to reform."
Second stop: South Korea
Advertiser library photo • March 8, 2001
The president will do all he can to stay smiley about the patient, pro-talk policy of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, currently politically embattled at home, toward prickly North Korea.
Kim Dae-jung is politically embattled.
"We support what Kim Dae-jung has been doing," insisted Rice, "which is the policy of peace through strength." But while supporting sunshine, she warned, "the ball is in the North Korean court."
But wasn't the president's inclusion of North Korea on the now-infamous "axis of evil" list a stretch — and a big downer for Kim? Not at all, she replied: "All three on that list are particularly bad offenders. What North Korea is doing in the world — missile sales and so on — can't be swept under the rug. And this administration is not going to do that. The president always works from a position of moral clarity, and he doesn't see any contradiction between strong support for peace and holding North Korea accountable."
One worries, though, that this tough line stands less of a chance of shaking North Korea's Kim Jong-il from the tree than South Korea's Kim Dae-jung, with whom Bush meets Tuesday. "We are always prepared to talk. And we believe there is no distance at all between our policy and South Korea's."
Last stop: Beijing
Advertiser library photo • July 1, 2001
The fact that Bush will spend any time at all in Beijing would seem to indicate serious movement away from the administration's initial chilliness to China.
China President Jiang Zemin is expected to soon end his term.
That could be in part a reward for China's quiet intelligence help in the U.S. war against terrorism in Central Asia. For, if Beijing's contributions have been at all disappointing, as some reports suggest, Rice wasn't saying: "They've been very helpful. We believe they've done everything they can do."
Looking at the glass as half full rather than half empty seems a dramatic change in outlook from a year ago, when the downsizing of China and the inflating of Japan seemed central to the new Asia policy. Not really, said Rice: "Go back to the president's discussions with China about the EP-3 surveillance plane incident. He indicated then that it was important to the United States to preserve a productive and realistic relationship with China. There are a lot of facets to that complex relationship. ... China is undergoing tremendous growth and transition."
That's an understatement, for sure, as she referred to the intense transition struggle now going on in China as current President Jiang Zemin moves to a more behind-the-scenes role. But haven't the Chinese settled the issue of the next leader (technocrat Hu Jintao, with whom Bush is scheduled to meet)?
"Regarding the movement to a new government," she said, "I think we are not prepared to think we know what will happen." Somehow her modesty seemed thoroughly — and appropriately — sincere.
Tom Plate, a columnist with The Honolulu Advertiser and the South China Morning Post, is a professor at UCLA. He also has a spot on the Web.
