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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Sunday, February 17, 2002

Lingle leads rivals in popularity

By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

If the 2002 elections were popularity contests for homecoming king and queen, and if it were time to choose now, Linda Lingle would be crowned governor.

But as politicians know better than anyone, elections are about far more than popularity, and nothing is certain until the votes are counted on election night.

Still, the latest Honolulu Advertiser/News 8 Hawai'i Poll offers some intriguing insights into how the keystone campaigns for governor and mayor are shaping up.

As Capitol Bureau Chief Kevin Dayton reports elsewhere in the paper today, Lingle and Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris are tied for name recognition with a 97 percent rating. Where have that other 3 percent been hiding?

D.G. "Andy" Anderson, former lawmaker and GOP gubernatorial candidate now running as a Democrat, also retains solid recognition numbers although he has been — by his own choice — out of active politics for several years. The others, including Democrat Ed Case and Republican John Carroll, lag substantially, while newcomer Jonathan Adler is virtually unknown at this point.

On the theory that people would not vote for someone they have never heard about, you might make some assumptions on who has the leg up based on the ratio of favorable to unfavorable ratings. The nod goes to Lingle, who has the strongest ratio of favorable/unfavorable of the major candidates.

Well, actually, that's not true. State Rep. Case has the highest favorable rating, but unfortunately, that comes from the relatively tiny handful of O'ahu folks who have heard about him.

So bottom line, Lingle is well known and relatively well liked among residents at this early point in the game. The high-profile Harris is equally well known but not as solidly well liked. It appears that he may have taken a relatively small but measurable whack because of the ongoing controversy over Harris campaign fund-raising practices.

Based on this Hawai'i Poll snapshot, what can we expect in the months ahead?

Lingle will work on planting her broad but relatively shallow popularity more deeply in the political soil. She has solid approval ratings among all ethnic groups, although she clearly has more work to do among non-Caucasian voters out there, particularly lower-income ones.

Harris needs to beat down those negatives, in part by defusing or defeating the charges coming from the Campaign Spending Commission and by spending money to explain that he is as likeable as a candidate as he is in person.

Anderson's task is obvious: He has fairly hefty unfavorable ratings to defuse and he has to reach beyond the solid pockets of support he has built among older people and Hawaiians.

Case has to make himself known, as he is the first to admit. The if-you-meet-me-you'll-like-me technique is hard to carry off statewide without tons of money.

For former state Sen. John Carroll — and to a far greater extent, Adler — they cannot worry about whether folks like them or not at this point. They have to get known.

Jerry Burris is editor of The Advertiser's editorial pages. Reach him at letters@honoluluadvertiser.com.