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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Wednesday, January 16, 2002

ANALYSIS
Campaign faces storm that may defy 'spin'

 •  Harris campaign probe goes to city prosecutor

By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief

Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris is all about controlling the message. He insists on it, and at times has shouted at his staff in frustration when he couldn't get a story out his way.

Yesterday, the story of a criminal investigation into alleged campaign spending law violations by Harris' 2000 mayoral campaign veered wildly, alarmingly out of his control.

One very real danger for Harris is that before a single act of wrongdoing has been proven, the voters might absorb the idea that he has broken the law, or at least been part of something dishonest. Another is that the investigation will scare off new contributors when Harris needs them most.

People who know Harris predicted his first response will be to take a poll to determine the extent of the damage to his campaign for governor. Some predicted Harris will also try to develop a splashy new city initiative to attempt to regain control and focus attention on something positive.

The harm to the campaign could be substantial, because the investigation by the state Campaign Spending Commission into the Harris campaign is extraordinarily public — you don't have to be a political insider to know what's happening.

At the first forum featuring the leading gubernatorial candidates last week, Harris' opponents joked gleefully about the ongoing investigation. They lavished praise on Campaign Spending Commission executive director Robert Watada, and speculated that Harris declined to attend the forum because Watada was there. (In fact, Harris administration officials said the mayor did not attend because he was ill.)

Each crack was rewarded with appreciative laughter from the Small Business Hawaii convention crowd. Everybody has heard about it. Everybody gets the joke.

This doesn't mesh well with Harris' stream of televised public-service announcements about safe driving and water pollution, or his ribbon-cutting ceremonies, carefully scripted press conferences and jovial appearances on-stage before the free movie at the city's Sunset on the Beach events.

For all of Harris' image as a highly competent administrator, a technocrat who carries the details of city government around in his head, he is also an accomplished political operator and fund-raiser. He learned the ropes as managing director under former mayor Frank Fasi, who knew the hardball business of fund-raising as well as anyone.

It was Fasi who growled at the Small Business Hawaii crowd last week that all other things being equal, chief executives from the president down to the mayor give non-bid contracts to their political supporters.

"When the mayor of this city and county and the people that speak for him say oh, it doesn't work that way — it works that way from A to Z," Fasi said. He said there should be a system for separating non-bid contracts from politicians, but said he has no idea how that could be done.

Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, who dropped out of the race for governor to run for mayor, said the whole uproar will do little damage to the Harris campaign if prosecutors find nothing worth prosecuting.

"It's pretty speculative right now," Hirono said. "I think if the prosecutor's office says there's nothing to it and they've conducted a proper investigation, then I think then it's pretty minimal whatever the damage might be. But it's anybody's guess, nobody has a crystal ball."

But it's also possible that cynical voters will simply assume that the "fix" was in and that Harris caught a break.

Rumors that Harris is considering abandoning the race for governor because of the investigation continue to circulate in political circles, but Hirono said none of this changes her plans: She will be running for mayor based on the assumption that Harris will leave office to run for governor.

In seven years as mayor and through two election campaigns, Harris has proven himself to be nearly bulletproof, easily sidestepping municipal imbroglios and complaints about his management of the city. He carefully weighs his response, offers a succinct and reasonable-sounding explanation, then moves on.

But that strategy may be ineffective in the high-stakes campaign for governor, where he will face credible opponents in the Democratic primary and an articulate, battle-tested Republican opponent, Linda Lingle. With Harris the candidate to beat, there's no reason for them to move on from the campaign finance story.

In a telling preview of how tough it's going to be for Harris to control the message, Lingle was on every TV station last night eagerly fueling the talk about Harris' possible withdrawal from the race. She then went on to suggest that the campaign finance issue is damaging his effectiveness as mayor.

"I think it has made people reluctant to contribute to the Harris campaign because he's under this investigation," she said. "I think it has distracted his attention both from his job as mayor as well as running for office, and it's probably going to make people think twice about helping him in the campaign."

Reach Kevin Dayton at kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.