COMMENTARY
John Carroll paints gubernatorial candidacy as Republicans' best bet

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian

What started out as a ho-hum Republican primary now promises to be an exciting race between solid competitors for the top spots. The candidates present clear choices for voters.

John Carroll, who is challenging Linda Lingle, says Hawai'i needs a wartime governor during this time of peril. Carroll says he qualifies. Advertiser library photo • May 2000

Two kinds of experience

With Carroll in the governor's race, the GOP primary will be issue oriented and spirited. He believes in position papers, and is producing them. The plain-talking veteran candidate and former legislator likes to speak his mind.

A "what you see is what you get" kind of guy, he reminds me of a grandfather. Which the twice-divorced father of six is, 11 times over.

A retired Air Force colonel and veteran of the Korean and Vietnam wars, he says Hawai'i needs a wartime governor during this time of peril: "People are looking for a governor with experience as both a military and political leader." Carroll is the only candidate for governor with those qualifications, he points out.

He also lists a strong business background. The 72-year-old lawyer and Big Island small rancher is recently retired as board chairman of Hawaii Aviation Contract Services.

We met in the lobby of the Hilo Hawaiian Hotel. Wearing a sweaty soccer jersey and muddy cleats, he'd just finished playing in a makule-league game. I twice asked him if they won. He evaded answering, changing the subject to politics both times. I figure they lost.

Ideological divergence

Carroll doesn't like to lose. But he did, in races for the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate. He won election to the state House for four terms (1970-'78), and to the state Senate for one term (1978-'80). In 1980, he was elected state Republican Party chairman, serving one term.

He chuckled as he recalled a remark from a fellow soccer player, a UH astronomer: "I'm going to vote for you because you have a measurable IQ."

He handed me a couple of brochures from past campaigns, along with white papers and an analysis of how he can beat Linda Lingle in the primary.

It's titled, "Why Lingle Can't Win in 2002."

It states: "John Carroll stands with the social conservatives that Lingle has alienated. If the turnout for the Republican primary is the usual 60,000 or so, the support of that group of voters would alone be enough for John to win."

"But I'd love to have Linda as my lieutenant governor," Carroll jokes.

The paper goes on to claim that in Lingle's race against Ben Cayetano in 1998, up to 75,000 of her votes were "anti-Cayetano votes." The assertion is that she won't keep those votes in the 2002 election.

Next, the paper asserts Lingle is "certain to lose a significant proportion of the social-conservative voters." Since her last race, she has shown that "she is pro-choice, pro-domestic partnership, etc."

The author of the paper asserts that Lingle, by becoming state GOP chairwoman in 1999, alienated independent voters and Democratic women who supported her in '98 because she had a "nonpartisan" or "Independent Republican" image.

A "significant portion" of Lingle's support, "possibly as many as 20,000," has moved back to the Mainland, the author guesses.

Going for the swing voters

Another Carroll campaign paper, marked "Confidential," concluded that in a best-case scenario, Carroll will get 66.3 percent of the Republican vote in the primary; and in a worst-case scenario, he'll get 51.5 percent. The projections were made by two of Carroll's supporters, Jimmy Kuroiwa and Alan Barr. Barr is a former Maui County councilman and an early supporter of Lingle.

In the general election, Carroll's supporters reason: "About 43 percent of Hawai'i's voters regularly vote for the Democratic nominee in a statewide election race. About 38 percent vote for the Republican. How that 19 percent in the middle vote will determine the election. John needs a little less than two-thirds of these swing voters to win."

How will Carroll get those swing votes?

From a review of his campaign literature, it appears he will appeal for votes from folks who are most like him: veterans and retired military; patriotic seniors; social conservatives; conservationists; hunters; underpaid teachers; lawyers who usually work pro bono; military and civilian pilots; members of professional unions; world travelers; football players (he played for UH under coach Tommy Kaulukukui), surfers, cyclists, squash players, divers and sailors; farmers, cowboys and ranchers; owners of small businesses; proponents of open government; folks against the merger of Aloha and Hawaiian airlines (he flew for Hawaiian); people opposed to Hawaiian sovereignty (he sued the Office of Hawaiian Affairs); people against legalized gambling; and voters "committed to equality before the law and equal opportunity to all."

Carroll identifies with pre-Lingle Republicans, and is saddened that "hundreds" of them have been shunted aside by Lingle. He mentions former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi as one who did much to build the state GOP and is now on Lingle's bad-guy list. Fasi still faces the possibility of being kicked out of the GOP for endorsing Democrat Cayetano in the last gubernatorial election.

A day or two before, Carroll had talked politics with Fasi, who is a candidate in the crowded nonpartisan Honolulu mayoral race. He said they agreed to run their own races and not endorse each other.

Fasi says of Carroll's candidacy: "Hope springs eternal for all of us. I like him. He's well qualified. The more good candidates there are, the better it is for the people."

Carroll was still thirsty from playing soccer, so we went into the small bar off the lobby. He ordered a tall glass of soda water, with a dash of bitters and a splash of lime syrup. Wow! And this guy was a fighter pilot?

I made the mistake of ordering the same.