Posted on: Sunday, January 27, 2002

COMMENTARY
If Harris drops out, what happens next?

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian

Topsy turvy! Arsy versy! The 2002 governor's race already has had more ups and downs, twists and turns, and in and out surprises than any election campaign in recent history. And it looks like there are more surprises ahead.

First, Andy Anderson, the Mr. Republican of many years, became a Democrat and plunged into the race for governor. He got the backing of prominent Democrats, like retired Judge Walter Heen and former University of Hawai'i President Fujio Matsuda. And support from veteran campaign organizers Fred Trotter and Larry Mehau.

Then, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono dropped out of the gubernatorial race to enter the race for Honolulu mayor. Incumbent Mayor Jeremy Harris, now free of a major competitor, seemed headed for certain victory in the primary. But it appears much of Hirono's gubernatorial public-employee labor support is going to Anderson.

Then Harris was dealt another blow: The state Campaign Spending Commission's probe of corporations that gave too generously to political organizations became public.

Fines were levied against seven transgressors. Fifty or so more are in the queue.

Evidence of alleged wrongdoing has been turned over to the city prosecutor.

Harris howls that he is being smeared.

He also claims that a faction of Democrats who don't like his politics are out to get him.

When I asked Anderson if his campaigners are in the Democratic group allegedly pursuing, through Bob Watada, a "vendetta" against Harris, he laughs. "That's such a preposterous notion. I don't even know Watada."

"Clearly, the investigation of the Harris campaign helps me," says Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ed Case. "It validates what I have to offer. A major concern of voters always has been the character of Harris. Voters don't want spin, they want straight facts. I talk straight."

The contrast in styles is heightened by the Harris response to the investigation, Case observes.

There is speculation that Harris will decide to pass up a run for governor and remain Honolulu mayor.

If so, the need for a special mayoral election is negated. Whatever will mayoral hopefuls Duke Bainum, Frank Fasi, Mufi Hannemann, Mazie Hirono and Keith Kaneshiro do?

Bainum is contemplating whether or not to drop out of a race that might not happen. But Fasi predicts Harris will stay in the race: "If he drops out of the governor's race, he will be nothing more than an unfortunate memory."

Hannemann, too, says he believes Harris will continue to pursue his bid for governor. "We'll keep running hard until he decides," Hannemann says.

Hirono says she is focused on the race for mayor, but if Harris drops out, "I would consider other ways to serve the people of Hawai'i, including running for governor."

Kaneshiro says his grassroots campaign will continue. If Harris does remain mayor, Kaneshiro says, he himself will not seek another office. Kaneshiro says his goal is to restore public confidence in the city administration, "and that's the only reason I'm running."

With Anderson now appearing to have a real chance of winning the gubernatorial nomination, some Democrats are said to be worried. One faction doesn't want an erstwhile Republican heading the Democratic ticket, and another faction doubts he can beat Republican front-runner Linda Lingle.

There is speculative talk that "they" will try to convince banker Walter Dods or former Gov. John Waihe'e to run for the top job.

Dods recently signed a three-year employment agreement that would preclude him from consider-

ing such a race. Waihe'e says he "will listen" if approached by committed supporters.

Another name sometimes mentioned is Hawai'i Pacific University President Chatt Wright, a no-nonsense economist who has earned the respect of the Honolulu business community.

Others would like to coax Hirono back into the governor's race.

To add more excitement, Republicans tossed in a surprise of their own. Lingle, who appeared to have a free ride in the primary, is being challenged by John Carroll.

A race with this veteran state legislator and former state GOP chairman will keep anti-Lingle Republicans from voting in the Democratic primary to support Anderson. That helps Case a lot and Harris a bit.

But all eyes are on Harris. Tomorrow, the mayor gives his State of the City address at Honolulu Hale. Will he again attack unnamed members of his own political party for carrying out a vendetta? A complicit unnamed gubernatorial opponent? Bob Watada and his five commissioners?

Or will he instead attempt to allay fears that the city is in deep financial trouble, as many claim?

In his recent State of the State speech, Gov. Ben Cayetano was relaxed, sometimes self-deprecating, always forthright, confident and even kind of cuddly.

Harris could try to smile, even if he is wearing armor.