COMMENTARY
GOP must avoid Lingle personalty cult

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian

A tour-de-force processional by the Harris-for-governor campaign at this weekend's Democratic convention became a recessional.

Mayor Jeremy Harris' decision to drop out of the race for governor gives Republican front-runner Linda Lingle an edge and an opportunity for the Republican Party to build a significant power base in Hawai'i. However, the party may suffer a severe setback if it focuses only on Lingle. Deborah Booker • The Honolulu Advertiser

Harris pollster Don Clegg was surprised by the number, but figured there was enough time to catch up. He, along with others, tried to convince Harris to stay the course. But Harris was convinced he couldn't win.

Topsy turvy. Arsey versey. The 2002 election had taken yet another big turn. When Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono dropped out of the governor's race some months ago, Harris was considered a shoo-in in the primary and a possible squeak-in winner in the general election. Now Harris is out of the governor's race and Hirono is back in it.

Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls D.G. "Andy" Anderson and Ed Case are quite suddenly taken more seriously by voters. And other possible contenders are mentioned. Former Gov. John Waihee and lieutenant governor candidate Clayton Hee are two off the tip of the tongue.

Despite her exits and entrances, Hirono probably is ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination. But that could quickly change. Case has been moving up in the polls and he now has fabled Joe Napolitan advising him. The guru had been advising Anderson informally, so Case scored twice.

Where will Harris supporters go? Those in the inner circle, especially the ones on the city payroll, will stay with Harris, who still has political aspirations. But what about all those folks who were loyal for other reasons?

And what about the men who wanted to replace Harris at Honolulu Hale: Duke Bainum, Frank Fasi, Mufi Hannemann and Keith Kaneshiro? Bainum and Hannemann say they'll look at other options. Kaneshiro does not plan to run for another office.

"There'll be a mayor's race," Fasi says.

"Harris will be recalled from office by the voters," he predicts. If that happens, will Fasi be a candidate? You bet.

The immediate big winner is, of course, Lingle. But will the GOP blow the advantage?

Democrats, who wind up their convention today, soon will find out if the 2002 Hawai'i GOP is a real political party or merely a Lingle personality cult.

If the latter, Dems will be singing "Happy Days Are Here Again" — again and again. Hawai'i voters shun even able politicians for the top job who attract cult followers or have the potential to. Nelson Doi and Fasi come to mind. So Lingle's biggest danger may end up being her enormous popularity with true believers in her party ranks.

But if the Republicans are serious as a political party, the Democrats will have seen the last of the good old days. A Lingle win gives the GOP a patronage base — plenty of good-paying jobs and prestigious appointments — on which to build a dynasty that would make the old oligarchy blush, as did the Democrats.

The Democratic Party used its patronage to take control of the executive, legislative and judiciary branches, and extended its power into the private nonprofit sector that orbits around government. In time, only small business was looking in from the outside.

Because the Democratic Party was so inclusive and too pervasive to be downsized into any politician's cult, it avoided the danger Republicans face. Only after passing away did Democratic Gov. Jack Burns achieve a kind of cult status, and that only recently. Govs. George Ariyoshi, Waihee (though charismatic) and Ben Cayetano were liked but never idolized. Although applauded for accomplishments, they never became celebrities.

But on former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's arm, Lingle has become a celebrity on the mainland's campaign contributions circuit. And she may bring celebrities here to solicit money from high rollers.

The prospect of winning the political pot of gold on the fifth floor of the state capitol, rather than rewarding a deserving Lingle, should be the Republican goal. Even though they know that full well, the Democrats will unite to stop Lingle. Because if Lingle loses, it will take the GOP at least three gubernatorial election cycles to recover.

A major theme at the Democratic convention was sounded last month by state party head Lorraine Akiba: "We're confident this November the voters will put their party ... in the position to continue (Democratic) successes. We believe they will not let the Republicans destroy what we've built."

Akiba's message echoes out of the Democrat's proud past: "We fight hard to preserve and protect the key values we in Hawai'i all share: social justice, shared prosperity, public accountability, strong families and a focus on our keiki."

Preserve and protect. The 2002 Democratic message is protectionist, not courageous.

She calls for a "healthy society," not a Great Society. She chides Republicans with "creating opportunities for only a lucky few," but doesn't declare War on Poverty.

Somewhere, over time, Democratic passion gave way to compassion.

"Thanks to Democrats," she writes, "Hawai'i is a special place: the home of aloha and the envy of the world!" Whether tired sloganeering still resonates with today's voters remains to be seen. But I doubt it.

In her last four years as party head, Lingle moved the GOP from the right to the center. And during his nearly eight years in the top job, Cayetano moved Democrats from left to center. With both parties now standing on the same middle ground, the 2002 election runs the risk of becoming a turf fight rather than a dynamic contest between political ideologies.

If, indeed, there is bipartisan consensus on the major issue (It's the economy, stupid!), the election comes down to voters measuring and weighing the intelligence, character and personality of the contestants, valid factors in all elections.

But judging from the past, the election will not be decided by IQ, integrity or sincerity. It will be decided by the lasting strength of the Democratic Party. Or the sudden lack of it.

Betting all their blue chips on a single candidate, rather than party-building, may send Lingle to Washington Place. But Democrats, at least those at this weekend's convention, think it will backfire and send the GOP to the penny-ante table.