ISLAND VOICES
The military card won't work

SBy Saleem Ahmed

Saleem Ahmed is a long-time Hawai'i resident, financial consultant and president of the Hawai'i-based nonprofit group "Milun: Association for Promoting South Asian Culture".

India and Pakistan, arch-rivals in geopolitics but loving cousins in their shared sociocultural heritage, are again on the brink of war in their vitriolic love-hate relationship spanning five decades.

Ironically, it's not because of any premeditated act of either government, but because of a spate of indiscriminate killings of civilians in Kashmir, the Colorado-size territory claimed by both countries. The perpetrators? The self-styled Mujahideen ("freedom fighters") who, India claims, have the backing of extremist Muslim groups in Pakistan and elsewhere.

If these extremists expect India to yield to their violence and give Kashmiris the right of self-determination, they are mistaken. Far from it: Their reckless act has precipitated large-scale mobilization in India — triggering an equally large-scale counter-mobilization in Pakistan.

Both countries, now packing atomic bombs, can unleash unimaginable destruction and death. Indeed, Pakistan has already warned that, if it finds itself in a tight corner if attacked by the numerically superior India, it reserves the right to exercise its nuclear option. Will India then not retaliate?

Pakistan says the Kashmir dispute will get resolved only when the U.N. Security Council implements its 1948 resolution calling for self-determination by the Kashmiris. India responds that this issue has been long settled by the fact that elections are held regularly for the Kashmir state assembly (although the question whether Kashmiris want to opt out of India is not asked).

Pakistanis say that India is unwilling to honor its commitment because, given the choice, Kashmiris will vote either to join Pakistan or become independent — and make their beautiful land-locked mountainous homeland the "Switzerland of Asia."

How many Pakistanis are willing to die to get Kashmiris the "right of self-determination"? How many Indians are willing to die to deny Kashmiris this right? And how many Kashmiris are willing to die to get this right? No one knows.

No Pakistani political party feels it can survive without including self-determination for Kashmiris in its platform; and no Indian political party feels it can survive without assuring its constituents that it will never agree to such self-determination.

Since no military solution is viable, should the sociocultural side of the equation be given a chance to blossom? Is this following sequential approach within the realm of reality?

• The acknowledgment phase: As a first step, both India and Pakistan would need to agree that: (1) Kashmir is an issue that needs to be resolved (here, India yields); (2) this issue does not have an immediate solution (here, Pakistan yields); and (3) the issue cannot be resolved by violence and hate (here, both — and the Kashmiris — win).

• Cooling-off phase: A cooling-off period of 10 years should be declared (here, Pakistan yields and tries to rein in extremists). However, India should realize that, just as the U.S. cannot rein in America's Timothy McVeighs and Unabombers, neither can Pakistan. Both countries will need to cooperate. The British proposal of a helicopter-borne U.N. observer team along the Line of Control dividing the two parts of Kashmir deserves serious consideration.

The cooperation of the Kashmiri people will also be essential; and their complaints of human rights violation by India will need to be addressed. The world community would need to pitch in and help in the area's economic development.

• Warming-up phase: Overland bus and train services between the two countries should be resumed, goodwill missions at all levels are initiated, and trade and commerce between the two countries are encouraged. Here expatriate Indians and Pakistanis, such as those in Hawai'i, could play a major constructive role.

• Economic union phase: A framework for a European-style economic union, involving India's states and Pakistan's provinces, is explored. Both sides of Kashmir could then be reunited as equal partners in this union. This union could conceivably also include other members of the South Asian community (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka).