Poll shows Linda Lingle leading all candidates

By Kevin Dayton
Advertiser Capitol Bureau Chief

Despite jumping into the race, out of the race and then back in again, Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono leads the field of the three Democrats who are running for governor, according to The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll.

But if Hirono were running against Republican Linda Lingle in a general election contest today, Lingle would beat Hirono by 15 percentage points, according to the poll.

The random statewide telephone survey of 600 registered voters was taken the week after Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris jolted the Democratic Party by withdrawing from the race for governor. Hirono, who withdrew from the governor's race late last year to run for mayor, then announced she would resume her bid for governor.

Forty-seven percent of voters said they would vote for Lingle if the election were held today, with 32 percent saying they would vote for Hirono and 21 percent undecided.

Hirono said the poll results are "great news for our campaign." She added: "I also never take these things for granted because I know that elections are won by hard work up to the very last day, and you can bet that's what we're going to be doing."

Lingle reacted cautiously to the poll numbers, saying it won't change her strategy.

"I feel good to be ahead now, but there's a long campaign ahead over the next five months, and I hope to be able to do better after I get to meet more people, get our advertising up and running, and our grassroots team in full operation," she said.

Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu conducted the poll June 3-6. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points, meaning that in a survey of all Hawai'i registered voters, the percentages for each candidate could be 4 percentage points higher or lower.

The Lingle-Hirono poll results are strikingly similar to a Hawai'i Poll in May 1998 that showed Lingle leading Gov. Ben Cayetano by 14 percentage points. Cayetano went on to defeat Lingle by about 5,000 votes in the general election.

The critical difference this year is the Democratic primary that pits Hirono against two other Democrats, with the winner facing Lingle in the November election. Other candidates may enter the Democratic primary, although Cayetano said Friday that he doesn't expect any will.

State Rep. Ed Case, D-23rd (Manoa), said the poll shows his campaign is gathering momentum and his message is reaching voters. He predicted he will beat Hirono in the primary because Democrats will conclude he is the best candidate to run against Lingle.

"These are probably maxed-out results for her," Case said of Hirono's standing. "I think what is happening is you have people who are undecided. They know who she is, but they have elected not to indicate their support for her. That has to be of great concern to her in both the primary and the general, where you have large numbers of undecided voters who know who you are."

Case's name recognition among voters increased since the last Hawai'i Poll in February, jumping from 51 percent to 68 percent. But he still trails Hirono, who enjoys 95 percent name recognition.

The third announced Democratic candidate, former state senator and former city managing director D.G. "Andy" Anderson, dismissed the poll results as "premature." While he has stronger name recognition than Case, he had the least support among likely Democratic primary voters who expressed a preference for a candidate.

"It's too early. People are voting from headlines," Anderson said. "When we get down to September and October, people will settle in, people will read, people will understand, the choices will be clarified. Right now, it's up in the air."

The Hawai'i Poll shows Hirono enjoys the strongest support among Japanese and Filipino voters who said they are likely to vote in the Democratic primary. A significant number of Japanese and Filipino voters would also back Hirono in a general election race against Lingle, the poll found.

Lingle's support is strongest among whites and Hawaiians.

In a sign of potential trouble for Hirono, the poll found that Lingle enjoys strong support in households with at least one union member in them. Forty-six percent of voters with a union member in the household said they would vote for Lingle in the general election, while 35 percent said they would vote for Hirono. Nineteen percent were undecided.

Hawai'i labor organizations have traditionally supported Democrats, and Hirono has worked hard to align herself with the state's biggest unions, particularly those that represent public employees. But Lingle won some key labor endorsements in 1998 and has been careful to distance herself from some of the more antagonistic positions of Republicans in the Legislature. Also, some union members, most notably public school teachers who went on strike last year, are still smarting over what they consider to be a betrayal by the Cayetano administration, and some of those lingering bad feelings may transfer to Hirono.

Twenty-eight percent of the people who said they will probably vote in the Democratic primary said they don't know yet who they will vote for. One explanation for that number is that some Harris voters haven't yet decided whose candidacy they will support. The groups most likely to say they are undecided were newcomers to the state and voters under 35.

Lingle said the Democratic primary may sharpen the survivor's campaigning skills, but will burn through the money and energy of all of the candidates. Hawai'i's primary election on the third Saturday in September is the latest primary in the country, making it difficult for candidates here to recover from a tough primary battle, she said.

Lingle is facing former state senator John Carroll in the Republican primary. The poll found that 86 percent of likely Republican voters will support Lingle in the primary.

A major task for the Democrats will be to hold together the party base, said Don Clegg, a veteran political consultant who has worked for Harris, former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi and other candidates.

Clegg estimated that 38 to 40 percent of Hawai'i voters consider themselves Democrats, 25 percent consider themselves Republicans and about 35 percent consider themselves independents. That means if the Democrats can get their supporters to turn out for their candidate, they need to attract just a bit more than a third of the independents to win, Clegg said.

The Hawai'i Poll suggested that may be a challenge in a race with Lingle. When the poll pitted Lingle against Hirono, Case and Anderson in hypothetical races with each, 30 to 40 percent of those who said they usually vote for Democrats also said they prefer Lingle.

And even 30 percent of the voters who said they would support Hirono in the Democratic primary said they had a favorable opinion of Lingle.

Reach Kevin Dayton at kdayton@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.