Mayor Harris' ratings change little in poll
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Chart: How do you rate Jeremy Harris?
By Lynda Arakawa
Advertiser Capitol Bureau
Public opinion of Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris appears to have been largely unaffected by a series of political setbacks and his abrupt withdrawal from the governor's race, The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll found.
A Hawai'i Poll in February found 47 percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Harris. The latest poll, conducted days after Harris announced he would drop out of the governor's race, showed a slight decline, to 42 percent. Those who said they had an unfavorable opinion barely increased to 27 percent, compared with 26 percent in February.
The Hawai'i Poll surveyed 600 registered voters statewide June 3-6. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Such a negligible drop would seem to run counter to Harris' claims that his gubernatorial campaign had been irreparably harmed in recent months by damaging publicity about his fund-raising and a bruising fight over the city budget.
Harris could not be reached for comment Friday.
But Don Clegg, who has polled for Harris and other Democrats, said candidates want at least a 50 percent favorable rating and that any drop when a rating is already below 50 percent indicates a problem.
"When you go from a 47 to 42, you've eroded some strong support," he said. Such a drop is more significant than a drop from 57 to 52, he said.
Both the February and June polls show that Harris' image has been remarkably resilient. The February poll was taken just after the state Campaign Spending Commission asked the city prosecutor to investigate Harris' fund-raising activities.
In March, Harris suspended his campaign after a judge ruled Harris must resign as mayor to continue to run for governor. The Hawai'i Supreme Court overturned that ruling, but by then Harris had trouble on another front: The City Council began attacking his proposed city budget, a battle that campaign officials said took a heavy toll on him.
Despite those troubles, the poll found that Harris' favorable ratings barely dipped. However, the June poll showed an increase in the "don't know" category when voters were asked for their opinion of Harris, suggesting that some who previously considered him favorably are reassessing their opinion.
Yas Kuroda, a University of Hawai'i political science professor, said he was surprised Harris' support did not significantly decline.
"I thought there had been so much negative things happening to him and despite that, he held his position very well," he said.
Kuroda, who has also polled for Democratic candidates, said despite what seemed like overwhelming negative publicity, Harris has had some public triumphs, such as the Supreme Court's overturning of the ruling that had suspended his campaign in March.
Kuroda also cited Harris' tremendous name recognition as Honolulu mayor, adding that some voters do not always pay attention to what they see and hear in the news. He also said Harris' claim that he was being politically attacked by some in the Democratic Party who were working to "smear" him and that he was wearing a bulletproof vest after receiving death threats may have won him sympathy with some voters.
Kuroda said changes in poll numbers are usually insignificant when they are less than 20 percent.
Reach Lynda Arakawa at larakawa@honoluluadvertiser.com or at 525-8070.
