COMMENTARY
Democrats not going to concede race to Lingle
By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian
When gubernatorial front-runner Jeremy Harris opted out of the Democratic primary race, both powerful and not-so-powerful Democrats wondered who else could beat Republican front-runner Linda Lingle.
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They didn't take long to conclude that either of Hawai'i's U.S. senators could do that job. But would they want it?
Sen. Daniel Akaka said collegiality in the Senate is too valuable for Hawai'i to lose.
Sen. Daniel Akaka said too quickly not to look at him.
Sen. Daniel Inouye joked too glibly that he might do it.
Then last week's Advertiser poll showed that Lingle could beat any of the three Democrats then in the primary race, if the general election were held a week ago.
So insiders and outsiders took a second look at the very popular Akaka. And they took seriously the joke of the powerful Inouye. As they should have. They learned that either senator could enter the race without giving up his seat in the Senate: Remember that Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., didn't have to resign to run for vice president. He lost and stayed in office. So no big thing.
Or is it? For Democrats, the problem is not losing but winning. A gubernatorial victory by Inouye would take away from Hawai'i the great power of his Senate seniority. Inouye is the fourth-most-senior member of the entire Senate and its third-ranking Democrat, behind Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy.
A member of the powerful Committee on Appropriations, Inouye is chairman of its defense subcommittee. A member of the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, he is chairman of its communications subcommittee. And he is chairman of the Committee on Indian Affairs. He serves on other important committees and subcommittees as well. He brings in so much federal money to Hawai'i that our economy would take a dive if he left Washington, D.C., for Washington Place.
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Akaka, too, has important Senate seniority and for that and other reasons has ruled the race out. He ranks 23rd among Democrats. But much of his power derives from his collegial relationships.
Sen. Daniel Inouye said power in Washington keeps the Hawai'i economy afloat.
Seniority is not transferable. Whatever senator would replace either of them, Democrat or Republican, would start at the bottom.
Of course, if a Senate seat opened up, both Hawai'i members of the U.S. House, Democrats Patsy Mink and Neil Abercrombie, would have a chance at realizing political dreams. So would others, such as former Republican U.S. Rep. Pat Saiki and former Democratic Gov. John Waihee. All of them are good people. But replacing a good person with another good person is small consolation for the loss of seniority in a powerful institution where seniority matters most.
But the biggest risk for Democrats is that a Republican, maybe Lingle, would run for the Senate and win. Does the national Democratic Party want to run that risk?
But even if Akaka or Inouye does run for governor, for a new candidate entering the fray to be considered viable, the candidacy would have to be committed to no later than July 4. The filing deadline is July 23. The primary is Sept. 21, and the general election is Nov. 5. That's not a lot of time for a successful campaign, even by a pro.
At this late date, how much money would it take to mount a winning campaign? A candidate with nearly total name recognition would need about $500,000 in the bank at the time of announcing and another $500,000 on the way. If successful, the nominee would need $2 million or $3 million to win the general election.
The candidate also would need energized labor unions united behind him and the kokua of other Democrats running for other major offices.
If such a heavyweight candidate does not emerge, it is likely that two or three other well-known candidates might announce. Former Office of Hawaiian Affairs Chairman Clayton Hee and state Sen. Matt Matsunaga, two men who were thinking of running for lieutenant governor, are seriously considering the race for the top job.
In a five- or six-person primary contest, either of them would stand a good chance of becoming the nominee. Once they grasp the brass ring, money would flow to them before the general election, they may guess.
The Democrats certainly are not going to concede the race to Lingle.
Other lieutenant governor candidates also might raise their sights. After all, if the Advertiser poll holds, why run for lieutenant governor paired with a loser? It would be a better boost to a political career to go for the top spot, win or lose.
Mufi Hannemann, who has been quiet since Harris dropped out, might surprise everyone and go for governor. He has $500,000 and support from labor. He also draws support from Republicans. In a general election, he would run well against Lingle.
But if it's a heavyweight candidate who enters the fray, my guess is that it will be Waihee. Both Dans are too valuable where they are. And their careers were made as legislators in Washington, not as administrators in Honolulu.
Waihee admits that he misses the days when he was governor. And he is quick to tell folks who believe he left the state in debt that when he left office, there was a $300,000 surplus, and that he had trimmed 1,000 state positions.
In many ways, the 2002 election is as much about the eventual race for a seat in the U.S. Senate. The party that controls the state probably will control who gets that seat.
