COMMENTARY
Dods would bring confidence to Democrats

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian

After eight years of Ben Cayetano, is Hawai'i ready for a governor who says Yes, even smiles and goes so far as to raise a thumb to support the economy?

Walter Dods, considered a moderate Democrat, may stand a good chance of winning the party primary — if he decides to enter the race. Advertiser library photo • May 2001

Running for governor is less rewarding than running a bank. Being governor is worse. It's hard work.

Known as a political pragmatist (Dods has backed the last three winning Democratic governors), I imagine the big guy holding last week's trial balloon has asked himself the above questions. How did he answer them? Maybe tomorrow we will find out if Dods lunges into the race or stays in the back room.

If Dods enters the race, the veteran political pro is transformed into a neophyte candidate. Even participating at a high level in the gubernatorial campaigns of George Ariyoshi, John Waihee, Ben Cayetano and Jeremy Harris, and campaigning for U.S. Sen. Dan Inouye, does not prepare a person to be a standup candidate for the top job.

As a candidate, suddenly every word you say is analyzed, your life and that of your wife are scrutinized, your motives questioned and your character demeaned — and worse.

The price paid to seek to serve the greater community is very high, as Jeremy and Ramona Harris found out. Are Dods and his family willing to pay that price?

And there is uncertainty. If Dods, with his reputation already made as a big winner in banking, does run, there is no guarantee he'll win in the primary. His chances of beating Republican Linda Lingle in the general election appear to be good. But to get there, he has to get by

D. G. "Andy" Anderson, Ed Case and Mazie Hirono. And all three of them, too, believe they can beat Lingle, and by a similar margin.

But nothing in politics is for certain. Does Dods, 61, want to risk his winner image at this stage of life?

And why run, anyway? I wonder what Dods can do as governor that he can't do as the power behind a governor? Obviously, until Harris folded, he thought being the power behind the governor was sufficient to accomplish his political goals during the next four to eight years.

What changed? When Democratic front-runner Harris dropped out of the race, claiming he couldn't beat Lingle, people asked: If Harris thinks his juggernaut can't beat her, what makes Anderson and Case think they can? And why would Hirono reassess her chance after giving up on the race earlier?

Clearly, a Democrat in a high place thought there was a real chance of losing Washington Place to the GOP. For a few days after Harris quit, an effort was made to convince popular U.S. Sen. Dan Akaka to consider running for governor. He declined. Was former Gov. John Waihee interested? He demurred but didn't close the door. Who was there who could do the job? Walter Dods, although he has never run for office, was an obvious choice.

What are Dods' chances in the primary? There is speculation that Hirono again will be asked to clear the way by dropping out, as she did for Harris. Since Case and Dods share centrist views, Dods may more easily woo voters away from Case than Anderson. If Hirono is gone, a battle will ensue between Dods and Anderson for union support.

• Support! Dods has helped every winner of major office in the recent history of the Hawai'i Democratic Party. If he goes, he'll call in the chits. He also has a cadre of executives and specialists from the bank, including former Advertiser editor Gerry Keir, a polling expert, to lend a hand pau hana.

• Money! With none of the three announced candidates adequately financed at this moment, Dod's ability to spend his own money to jump-start a campaign, and raise more big bucks from colleagues in the business community, gives him an edge. Dods' possible lack of name recognition, especially on the Neighbor Islands, is easily corrected by a media blitz.

• Image! A businessman running as a Democrat for governor of Hawai'i would squelch even a Malcolm Forbes scribbler from maundering on about how Fidel Castro would love this place. But what about the ordinary folks? Will they see Dods as a regular guy who understands them and wants to help solve their problems? Or as a banker who after investing his first million forgot he went to St. Louis? And will new haole voters cotton to the way Dods accents English?

Dods is a marketing whiz who changed the image of a bank that said no into that of one that said yes. With his fabled PR ability, Dods can enhance his image as a man of all the people.

What he doesn't have to polish is the way he exudes confidence, as if it is natural. That he's a local boy who made it big time in a kama'aina business started by missionary descendants. That he is type-A personality competitive. That the so-called movers and shakers know him well and have worked with him over time.

With Dods perceived as a victor in November, there is renewed interest in the race for lieutenant governor by candidates who were thinking about running for the highest office. Mufi Hannemann is "seriously considering" the race. Clayton Hee is "ready to announce." Matt Matsunaga is "98 percent certain" of filing. Donna Ikeda, Ron Menor and Jon Yoshimura continue to campaign for lieutenant governor. All of them can imagine being the ethnic other half of a "dream team."

My hunch is that Dods, if elected, would be a one-term governor. Not that he would be defeated for reelection. It is that at the close of his term, he would be 65 and psychologically ready for retirement. By then, his lieutenant governor would be ready to grasp the reins and lead the Democratic state administration into the second decade of the century. The prospect of not having to wait eight years to run for the top job has to be appealing to any and all of the potential lieutenant governor candidates.

Whatever will Lingle do if Dods is the Democratic candidate?

Dods already is cast as one of the Old Boys in the network, which he is. And to make the point stick, he may be morphed into Ben Cayetano, who he isn't. For Lingle to run against lame-duck Cayetano does her no good. He is not a candidate. In the weeks ahead, Lingle will surely focus on whoever is the Democratic front-runner.

In the meantime, she may decide to come forth with a powerful message, other than that it's good to have the new resident of Washington Place from a different party.

A one-horse party is less exciting than one with a full field, even if they are running in different directions. Why the GOP is so ballot-minimalist is perplexing.

And why shouldn't the GOP follow the Democrats' example of candidates jumping the queue to run? With each mention of a possible new Democratic gubernatorial candidate, the excitement level of that party soars. Sure, it had to be tough on Anderson, Case and Hirono to have front-runner Harris say he couldn't beat Lingle and was going to remain mayor of Honolulu. It made their campaigns look weaker than they are.

And then to have a high-level scramble to find a candidate "who can beat Lingle" had to further hurt their chances, not to mention their feelings. But that's been Hawai'i Democratic politics since 1954. Ask Tom Gill, Jean King, Nelson Doi and Frank Fasi.

Hawai'i voters seem to prefer the hurly-burly of the Democrats to the lace-curtain politics of the GOP. That could change before September, but I see no sign of it.