A work stoppage by one or both groups would slow goods from Asia to a trickle and ripple through the nation's economy, particularly in Hawai'i, where shipping accounts for about 90 percent of goods to the state.

"In terms of where the economy here in Hawai'i ends up if there is a strike ­ it will be disrupted," said Paul Brewbaker, an economist with Bank of Hawaii. "It will be more disruptive the longer it goes on."

The contract between the Pacific Maritime Association and 10,500 West Coast longshoremen controls the flow of goods through all of America's 29 major Pacific ports. Last year, that trade amounted to $260 billion in cargo.

Hundreds of longshoremen rallied in California yesterday and warned shippers they will strike if there is no progress in negotiations over a new labor contract.

The contract expires Monday, and union officials say there has been little progress since negotiations began in May. Union officials say key issues include salaries and benefits.

Hawaii's port workers, whose contract also expires Monday, generally follow the lead of their West Coast counterparts in contract talks.

Timothy Ho, president of the Hawaii Employers Council – which represents shippers Matson Terminals Inc., Hawaii Stevedores Inc., HT&T Co. Inc. and McCabe Hamilton and Renny Co. Ltd. – declined comment on the upcoming Hawai'i negotiations.

Bo Lapenia, president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 142 in Honolulu, did not return telephone messages seeking comment.

The last contract for dockworkers was negotiated in 1999. That year, a strike deadline came and went but longshoremen kept working and the two sides settled two weeks later. If the current situation escalates, President Bush can impose a cooling-off period to kick-start negotiations and keep longshoremen working.

Hawaii's docks were shut down for five months in 1949, and for 100 days in 1971 because of a West Coast strike.

In 1999, fears of a strike led to some people hoarding food, toilet paper and other necessities, a practice that Brewbaker said is likely to increase as news of the current negotiations filters out.

"That's probably going to happen this weekend," Brewbaker said.

If a prolonged strike threatened the health and welfare of citizens, then Gov. Ben Cayetano could declare a state of emergency.

However, Brewbaker said economic advances such as Internet shopping and expanded air freight service should mitigate the impact of a work stoppage.