Posted on: Friday, March 8, 2002

El Nino increases hurricane hazard

By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Science Writer

Evidence of a new El Nino on the way could portend a hurricane season that's more active than usual this year, and a winter that's dry.

Meteorologists say the Pacific is moving slowly into a new phase of El Nino, the large-scale climate phenomenon that, for Hawai'i, can mean a statistically higher likelihood of more storms and stronger storms, as well as reduced rain in winter.

"Things have been gathering steam for a while," said Roger Lukas, a professor of oceanography at the University of Hawai'i. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center now says its best weather models suggest the Pacific will move into a weak to moderate El Nino within the next few months.

That's just in time for hurricane season, which runs June through November in the Pacific.

But while there is a link between El Nino and more storms, there's no sure thing. Hawai'i has been hurricane-free during strong El Nino years like 1997-98, just as it has been hit by hurricanes in strong El Nino years — like Hurricane 'Iwa in 1982-83.

An El Nino is associated with a large pool of warm water that moves along the equator from the western Pacific to the east. There are associated changes in rainfall, in fisheries and in weather patterns in distant places such as North America, Africa and Asia.

In Peru, scientists have reported that warming conditions have increased ocean temperatures 4 degrees Fahrenheit more than normal, and have caused the cold-water anchovies to leave their normal waters off the coastal nation.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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