COMMENTARY
Hawai'i politics ripe for revolution

By Bob Dye
Kailua-based writer and historian

"You didn't vote!" I accused one of my wife's many cousins.

The fact that most Hawai'i adults don't vote virtually guarantees long tenures and big pensions to most incumbents, both virtuous and venal. Advertiser library photo • Jan. 26, 2002

She is one of too many cousins — whole families of them — who tired of voting in uncontested races, for a token candidate, or for a tired old pol.

According to the Census, in the 2000 general election, only 52.2 percent of Hawai'i residents were registered to vote, and only 44.1 percent of those actually voted.

If you're old like me, you remember that Hawai'i led the nation in voter turnout in those first heady days of statehood. Now we are dead last: worst in registration and in voting.

For long-serving incumbents, this is good news, I suppose. It confirms that voters have given up on "voting the bums out."

Or is it that we have a love affair with incumbents? Even those who get in trouble!

A drive to recall Honolulu Councilman Andy Mirikitani failed. Only after a federal court convicted him of a felony was he removed from office.

And a recall drive against Ho-nolulu Councilwoman Rene Mansho bombed. Now the city clerk is checking to see if there are enough valid names on petitions calling for her impeachment. Even if there are, her term may end before the Hawai'i Supreme Court makes a decision.

Wannabe candidates, too, have a warm and fuzzy, unthreatening relationship with incumbents. They suffer from a "wait your turn" mentality and have for years.

Pointing proudly to their own seniority, as if growing old in the job is a public good, incumbents encourage aspiring politicians to "only run for an empty seat," and sagely advise them to "never challenge an incumbent." The advice is too often taken, but for good reason.

Not since Republican Bill Quinn was beaten by Democrat Jack Burns in 1960 has a Hawai'i governor lost his seat to a challenger. Nor have incumbent members of our congressional delegation ever lost a bid for re-election.

It seems that if it weren't for death and term limits, there would be no chance for an incumbent to be upwardly mobile. As it is, new faces grow old slogging away in the Legislature. Eventually they, too, will sing the praises of seniority, hanging on until they qualify for generous retirement benefits.

As yet, neither of our two representatives in the U.S. House — Neil Abercrombie and Patsy Mink — faces a challenge in the Democratic primary. And only a solitary Republican, state Rep. Bob McDermott, seeks to challenge the liberal Mink in the general election.

But that may change. The conservative McDermott could find himself challenged in the primary by a party-blessed candidate as a result of his feud with the GOP leadership. He loudly accuses party executive Micah Kane of improper fund-raising and of denying him access to a contributors list.

For the past couple of elections, pundits have speculated that Mink is vulnerable. "That's because she hasn't changed with the times," says psychologist and pollster Don Clegg. "Same old Patsy! Too far left of center."

Abercrombie has moved from left to center, so Clegg says the congressman has a lock on his House seat. But other pundits say he is vulnerable, as well.

Vulnerability is one thing, but is there anyone out there who could beat either Mink or Abercrombie? Maybe someone new to the business of government?

Democrat Colleen Hanabusa, vice president of the state Senate, has been mentioned as someone who could oust Mink in the primary. Republican Bob Hogue, minority policy leader in the state Senate, could beat her in the general, says a respected pollster. Democrat Ed Case could take Abercrombie, another guesses.

But Case is running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris and businessman D.G. "Andy" Anderson. And neither Hanabusa nor Hogue has decided, as yet, what career move to make, if any. Hogue makes no secret of his interest in heading the stadium authority. So his love of sport may override any quest for a full-time elective office. But it's clear, from talking to Hanabusa, that she wants bigger and better challenges to prepare her for a run at the U.S. Senate when a vacancy occurs.

Hanabusa is a graduate of the University of Hawai'i law school. Bright and confident, she has the aggressive tenacity of a girl who grew up on the Wai'anae Coast. No tita, she's a feel-gooder, quick to laugh and nobody's fool. She has the charisma and energy to realize her political ambition.

The affable Hogue has academic credentials as an accountant, and practiced as an auditor with a major firm on the Mainland. But he was best known here as a sportscaster until he achieved bipartisan political popularity as a legislator willing to go nose-to-lens with those van cams. Last week, the Senate voted unanimously to end the controversial program.

Hanabusa wrote the traffic camera bill. She blames the state Department of Transportation for lousing up the anti-speeding program's implementation.

Hanabusa and Hogue, though on opposite sides of the aisle, have great respect for each other. Hogue claims Hanabusa is the smartest person in the Senate.

Two other relative newcomers, Democrat Marcus Oshiro and Republican Charles Djou, bear watching in another year's election. This time, Oshiro will run for re-election to the House. And Djou will seek a seat on the Honolulu City Council.

A big question this year: Could relative political newcomers such as Hanabusa and Hogue tap into Hawai'i's deep pool of former voters?

The GOP surely thinks so. They've recruited a number of new faces: Brandt Sakamoto to contest for the Salt Lake-Moanalua House seat held by Democrat Nathan Suzuki; Lynn Finnegan, a mortgage broker, to run for the Foster Village seat vacated by Bob McDermott; Karen Awana to run against Mike Akina in Nanakuli; Sam Moku to run for the House seat that Ken Ito now holds in Kane'ohe; and Nelson Secretario to challenge Hermina Morita for the redistricted (former canoe district) House seat on Kaua'i.

I, too, think this is the year for new faces to bring voters back to the polls. And for this chauvinistic reason, if none other: In the last election, 70 percent of registered voters went to the polls in four states. If Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin, as well as Washington, D.C., did it in 2000, then Hawai'i can, too, in 2002.

Remember that it happened before, nearly a half-century ago, in 1954. This is the year for another peaceful revolution in Hawai'i.