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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Tuesday, March 12, 2002

Air travelers reach 1 billion in 2013

By John Hughes
Bloomberg News

U.S. airline traffic will reach 1 billion passengers in 2013, three years later than forecast last year, because of the recession and Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. aviation regulators said in an annual report.

U.S. airline traffic will reach 1 billion passengers in 2013, three years later than forecast last year, because of the recession and Sept. 11 attacks, U.S. aviation regulators said in an annual report.

Advertiser library photo • Oct. 16, 2001

Traffic will fall 12 percent to 600 million passengers in this fiscal year, the lowest number of passengers since 1995, the Federal Aviation Administration said. Traffic will rebound to pre-attack levels during the next fiscal year, which starts Oct. 1, and grow 4 percent annually starting in fiscal 2004, according to the forecast that will be released later today.

"Regardless of the short-term decline in air traffic, our forecast underscores the need for the government and the aviation industry to continue adding capacity," FAA Administrator Jane Garvey said in a statement.

The forecast comes as an airline industry trade group said losses reached some $7 billion in 2001 and will continue this year. "At best the airline industry hopes to see a profitable quarter in the later part of 2003," said the report by the Air Transport Association, which represents AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and other carriers.

The government and airlines need to focus on airport and air-traffic improvements even as the economy emerges from recession, the FAA and industry trade group said. Delays rose 20 percent to a record level in 2000. Airlines' on-time performance has improved for 10 straight months, in part because of reduced demand from the Sept. 11 attacks.

"Air travel has gotten so enmeshed with American life, both for business and leisure, I really can't see Americans abandoning air travel," said David Swierenga, ATA's chief economist, in an interview. "Now is an opportunity for us to take advantage of this lull. I like to characterize delays as being in remission."